Tonight’s polls are changes within the margin of error, though the Lib Dems will be delighted to be up by 2% in both polls. Opinium for the Observer shows Labour lead at 4pts in latest Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 34 (-1), Con 30 (+1), Ukip 17 (-1), Lib Dems 9 (+2). Cam and Mili personal ratings up. — Toby Helm (@tobyhelm) July 19, 2014 The ComRes supplementaries make for interesting (if depressing) reading for Dave and Ed. On the reshuffle doesn’t…
David Herdson on Cameron’s line-up for GE2015 Squaring circles is part of the business of politics. One such conundrum David Cameron has to face is how to simultaneously make the party he leads more appealing to centrist floating voters while also attracting back those who’ve defected to UKIP. On the face of it, those are two incompatible objectives: how can a party move both left and right at the same time? The simple answer is it can’t; the more complex…
Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence) Result: Scottish Nationalists 595 (25% -6%), Independent (MacGregor) 548 (23%), Labour 526 (22%), Conservatives 445 (18% +9%), Independent (Malloy) 301 (12%) Independent (MacGregor) GAIN from Scottish Nationalist on the fifth count on a swing of 7% from Ind to SNP Mabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias on Cornwall (UKIP defence) Result: Conservatives 406 (33% +5%), Liberal Democrats 405 (32% +9%), UKIP 271 (22% -7%), Labour 107 (9% unchanged), Mebynon Kernow 58…
Andy Burnham the overwhelming leader in latest @LabourList shadow cabinet rankings pic.twitter.com/B6kaB8p8qi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2014 Longstanding PBers will know that Henry G Manson’s has a great record with his tips on anything to do with LAB. He was dead right on EdM in 2010 and his guidance has proved pretty good over the years. This morning he emailed me to suggest that Andy Burnham was a great bet for next LAB leader. He cited as evidence…
YES edges forward with TNS #IndyRef YES moves to best position yet in a TNS-BMRB poll pic.twitter.com/9CUJZz3Vby — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2014 For whatever reason TNS and YouGov IndyRef polls have generally had the worst numbers for YES while Survation, ICM and PanelBase have had the best. Polling though is all about trends which is why the YES campaign is delighted by the latest from TNS-BMRB. After three other polls from other firms suggested that YES had stalled…
Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Independents 15, Scottish Nationalists 13, Conservatives 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4) Result of last election in ward (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Scottish Nationalists 410, 707 (31%) Independents 421, 807, 125, 361, 222, 58 (55%) Liberal Democrats 188 (5%) Conservatives 332 (9%) Candidates duly nominated: Gerry Fisher (SNP), Kieron Green (Lab), John MacGregor (Ind), Marri Malloy (Ind), Andrew…
LAB holding firm with Polling Observatory when on past trends they should be declining http://t.co/YnksOt9D81 pic.twitter.com/FJeNISIjoU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2014 CON and LAB movements not going with historical trends Each month political scientists at a group of universities put out a GE2015 forecast under the rather grandiose banner of “The Polling Observatory” which is based on current polling and historical polling experience. The latest is in the chart above. A can be seen CON and LAB are…
What’s marked here is the readiness of those polled across the spectrum to back Cameron. Also note the contrast between the Gove doing good job numbers and the reshuffle finding. You would expect them to be closer. My view on this remains – it was a smart move by the PM which will, at the margin, have a positive electoral impact in the blues favour. Meanwhile Clegg’s got a Twitter hit on his hands What I wore to the office…