Browsed by
Month: July 2014

What I cannot understand given their age profile is the lack of concern by UKIP voters about pensions and health

What I cannot understand given their age profile is the lack of concern by UKIP voters about pensions and health

Comments 0 Comment

Latest YouGov issues data showing relative lack of interest by UKIP voters in health & pensions. Odd given their age. pic.twitter.com/R2mmUIuZGF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 The table above is the latest issues polling by YouGov broken down by concerns for the country and for responders own families. Given that the age profile of kippers is tilted to the higher end of the range their views on the lack of importance of, say, education is understandable. But what…

Read More Read More

PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

Comments 0 Comment

Home of the web’s best political conversation On A Night Like This, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, I Want You, to delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Britain has very little to fear from the ECHR. So why are so many Tories so afraid of it? Without older voters the Greens have…

Read More Read More

Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling finds that UKIP is hurting LAB more than CON

Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling finds that UKIP is hurting LAB more than CON

Comments 0 Comment

The big message from latest @LordAshcroft marginals polling is that LAB is now being hurt more than CON by rise of UKIP in key seats — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2014 Two months ago @LordAshcroft 's marginals polling found LAB set to gain 13 of the 14 seats polled. Now that's down to 10 with UKIP taking 2. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2014 UKIP in lead in two of the seats polled UKIPNnow in lead in Thurrock…

Read More Read More

Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place

Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place

Comments 0 Comment

With so much variation in the UKIP share in recent polls it is perhaps worth recalling that the firm that got it most right the last time they were tested, the May 22nd Euros, was YouGov. The figures are in the chart above and it is interesting that YouGov and ICM, the ones that did best on May 22nd, are continuing to show UKIP with smaller shares for the general election compared with other pollsters. Later this morning Lord Ashcroft…

Read More Read More

Tories drop 5 and UKIP up 3 in this week’s Ashcroft national poll

Tories drop 5 and UKIP up 3 in this week’s Ashcroft national poll

Comments 0 Comment

Yet again the Ashcroft national phone poll has surprised us. This time with a 5% drop in CON support, 2% drop for LAB and a 3% increase for UKIP. Last week the Ashcroft figures were Con 32%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 14%, Green 6% This compares with the earlier Populus online phone poll that had the LAB lead moving from zero to 5%. Both are featured in the chart above. The Ashcroft changes are bigger than the margin…

Read More Read More

My anaylsis of 100+ polls shows that the 2010 LD voters who’ve switched to LAB are sticking and that’s bad news for the Tories

My anaylsis of 100+ polls shows that the 2010 LD voters who’ve switched to LAB are sticking and that’s bad news for the Tories

Comments 0 Comment

Curtice is right: LD switchers aren’t going back “any time soon” In a broad-ranging interview just published Britain’s leading political scientist, Professor John Curtice made these observations about Labour’s polling position and GE2015. “..basically the reason why the Labour party is in the lead is because of the loss of Liberal Democrat support to Labour. It goes all the way back to 2010 and it’s not obvious that it’s going to go back anytime soon… ..I see no reason why…

Read More Read More

Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling would be even more informative if the candidates were named

Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling would be even more informative if the candidates were named

Comments 0 Comment

The 14 CON held marginals that @LordAshcroft polled in May. It looks like these are the seats for his latest polling pic.twitter.com/mqPFWFk4MC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2014 @MSmithsonPB all revealed next week Mike! — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 19, 2014 Are the blues getting a first time incumbency bonus? I got into a good natured Twitter exchange last night with Lord Ashcroft about the seats that will be included in his next round of marginals polling due to…

Read More Read More

The Sunday Times YouGov findings on the reshuffle, Michael Gove, free schools, the “bedroom tax” and leaving the ECHR

The Sunday Times YouGov findings on the reshuffle, Michael Gove, free schools, the “bedroom tax” and leaving the ECHR

Comments 0 Comment

YouGov poll finding on more women being in the cabinet pic.twitter.com/mGRDtJiNr7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2014 Are the Tories still seen as the “nasty party? Today's YouGov poll suggests that Cameron is making progress over the Tories being seen as the "nasty party". pic.twitter.com/MYX0ODEFhC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2014 Just 13% tell YouGov that the re-shuffle has made the Tory team of ministers look stronger. 16% say weaker — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2014 The…

Read More Read More