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Month: June 2014

Survation finds that YES could have an 8% lead if Scottish voters thought Dave would win GE15

Survation finds that YES could have an 8% lead if Scottish voters thought Dave would win GE15

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There are two issues with this poll which make it stand it: the closeness of the outcome compared with other recent surveys and the Cameron question. The main finding with changes on last time:- YES 39 (+2) NO 44 (-3) DK 17 (NC) Without DKs YES 47 NO 53 This is one of the closest margins yet in any poll and is very much against the run of other recent polling. It will certainly give the YES campaign a boost…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re experiencing a Night Fever, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. Whether you’re a poster or whether you’re a lurker, why not post on Nighthawks tonight. It’ll be a Tragedy if some lurkers don’t delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Fabian research shows how “Ukip effect” threatens Labour –…

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David Herdson says that there’s never a good election to lose

David Herdson says that there’s never a good election to lose

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May 11th 2010 Those who invite or accept defeat for some greater end are usually deluded and counter-productive One pre-election tradition that has been little honoured so far is hearing the assertion it will be a ‘good one to lose’.  Invariably, those who put that argument forward fall into one or both of two overlapping groups: those who spy monsters down the road which they believe will slay the election winners, providing the opportunity for their preferred party to win…

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Estimating the “house effect” for each pollster. How much do they differ from the overall average for each party.

Estimating the “house effect” for each pollster. How much do they differ from the overall average for each party.

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All of us who follow the polls closely know that some firms will be particularly beneficial to one party or another and generally produce some of the worst figures for another party. Now as part of a methodology change the “Polling Observatory” at Manchester University in their latest report has sought to measure this as part of a big change in how they average the polls. A spin off from this is that they’ve sought to estimate the “house effect”…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you Just Can’t Get Enough of PB, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk,  you might Enjoy The Silence of lurking, but you’ll enjoy posting even more. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Antifrank: The latest election round: what have we learned about UKIP? Part…

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What’s believed to be the largest political bet ever – £400k at 1-4 on an #IndyRef NO

What’s believed to be the largest political bet ever – £400k at 1-4 on an #IndyRef NO

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Herald Scotland rhttp://goo.gl/O93cQ0 reporting one of the biggest political bets ever #IndyRef. £400k on NO at 1/4. pic.twitter.com/ixat3WawwD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 10, 2014 Suddenly the high rollers are putting big money on NO The punter, said to be a middle aged man, placed a bet via a banker’s draft 1/4 on an IndyRef NO at a William Hill’s betting shop in SW London. He stands to make a profit of £100,000 if that’s how the referendum goes. Hill…

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I’m not convinced that Rentoul’s right when he says the polls could be overstating LAB and understating CON

I’m not convinced that Rentoul’s right when he says the polls could be overstating LAB and understating CON

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You can’t draw those big conclusions from recent election polling In a recent post the Indy on Sunday’s John Rentoul had this to say about the EP14 and Newark polling and its implications for GE15. “…By-elections in which a seat fails to change hands may not seem the most exciting of events, but they are important because they allow us to assess the accuracy of opinion polls. Two were carried out in Newark in the final two weeks, one by…

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The big challenge now for UKIP: Securing enough votes in single seats well in excess of anything its achieved before

The big challenge now for UKIP: Securing enough votes in single seats well in excess of anything its achieved before

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Getting even a single MP might be beyond the purples There’s been lots of betting interest since EP14 and Newark over what UKIP will do at GE15. Will this be the election when the party that won the Euros actually gets it first MP or MPs? We’ve been over this many times but it is hard ask for Farage’s team to get enough votes in at least one of the 650 seats that puts them over the line. As we…

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