Browsed by
Month: June 2014

The guy who this week wagered £400k at 1 to 4 on an IndyRef NO might feel a tad nervous following new poll

The guy who this week wagered £400k at 1 to 4 on an IndyRef NO might feel a tad nervous following new poll

Comments 0 Comment

Panelbase IndyRef poll for YES Scotland has the gap down to just 4 percent Three days after it was reported that a man in SW London backed an IndyRef NO with £400,000 at 1/4 there’s a new poll which has the gap at just 4% It was commissioned by Yes Scotland. The pollster is the Northumberland-based, Pabelbase, which in the past has produced the best figures for YES. Tonight’s poll is broadly in line with the recent Survation survey that…

Read More Read More

Tories get to within 2% in the June ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror

Tories get to within 2% in the June ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror

Comments 0 Comment

ComRes also repeated its regular “Favourability Index.asking “Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following.” The figures show the percentage replying “favourable”, and the net score, “favourable” minus “unfavourable”: Prince William 68% +59 The Queen 63% +51 Prince Charles 43% +22 Boris Johnson 41% +13 David Cameron 28% -18 Nigel Farage 26% -18 William Hague 25% -10 George Osborne 19% -25 Ed Miliband 19% -30 Theresa May 16% -22 Nick Clegg 13% -41…

Read More Read More

Multiculturalism was buried this week, un-noticed

Multiculturalism was buried this week, un-noticed

Comments 0 Comment

Via BBC politics. Gove and May's show of unity http://t.co/sZ802GkeQE … pic.twitter.com/IZrrhvoodQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 9, 2014 The reaction to Trojan Horse has major implications for social policy Most of the reaction and comment to the fallout from the Birmingham schools Trojan Horse affair has centred on the spat between Theresa May and Michael Gove (and their respective departments), on what ‘British values’ means, and on to what extent – if they can be defined – they should be…

Read More Read More

If Ladbroke punters have this right CON is heading for a win on votes – LAB on seats

If Ladbroke punters have this right CON is heading for a win on votes – LAB on seats

Comments 0 Comment

10.5 mths to go & @LadPolitics http://t.co/GmnRBnYZFl makes it CON most votes LAB most seats http://t.co/5FG1QdHZUh pic.twitter.com/22KRvn3NWE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2014 Maybe this explains the disparity between constituency & GB markets The standard assumption is that this is mostly down to the boundaries is wrong. Yes LAB does get some benefit but the key factor is different turnout levels in CON and LAB seats. Shadsy of Ladbrokes gets this right in in his blog:- “..the main factor…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Results: June 12th 2014

Local By-Election Results: June 12th 2014

Comments 0 Comment

Sleaford, Quarrington and Mareham (Ind Defence)< Result: Lincolnshire Independent 527 (45%), Conservative 477 (40%), Independent 178 (15%) Lincolnshire Independent GAIN from Independent with a majority of 50 (5%) Sleaford, Westholme (Ind Defence) Result: Lincolnshire Independent 342 (69%), Conservative 119 (24% +3% on 2011), Labour 38 (8%) Lincolnshire Independent GAIN from Independent with a majority of 223 (45%) Collington on Rother (Ind Defence) Result: Independent 570 (42%), Conservative 378 (28%), United Kingdom Independence Party 311 (23%), Labour 102 (8%) Independent HOLD…

Read More Read More

How British politics might have been different If Gordon Banks had not had a bug before the 1970 West Germany match

How British politics might have been different If Gordon Banks had not had a bug before the 1970 West Germany match

Comments 0 Comment

Check out this great counter-factual by UKPR’s Anthony Wells The opening of the 2014 World Cup is a good peg to hang one of the great counter-factuals of politics and football written and created by YouGov’s Anthony Wells and the man who runs UKPollingReport. The basic premise is that the outcome of the 1970 General Election, when the Tories were returned to power, could have been different if England had not been knocked out in the Quarter Final by West…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Preview : June 12th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : June 12th 2014

Comments 0 Comment

Now, I know there is the small matter of a massive football competition happening in Brazil over the next few weeks which will (according to Bloomberg television) attract some $5 billion worth of bets during the competition, but let’s not forget that with the Liberal Democrats on 6% of the vote in some polls and UKIP’s leader declaring over £200,000 worth of gifts in the last ten years, British politics and it’s elections will still carry on regardless so with…

Read More Read More

Lord Ashcroft’s promised CON-LD battleground polls could either take the pressure off Clegg or add to it

Lord Ashcroft’s promised CON-LD battleground polls could either take the pressure off Clegg or add to it

Comments 0 Comment

What’s going on in LD-held seats is critical The 6% share for the Lib Dems in today’s YouGov/Sun poll is the lowest the firm has reported since it began its online operation in 2001. The party was just 1% ahead of the Greens. While Opinium, which generally has the worse figures for the yellows has had them at this level before the latest finding will add to the discomfort in the party coming as it does after the appalling performance…

Read More Read More