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Month: June 2014

It’s cross-over time on the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index. Immigration moves clear of the economy as top concern

It’s cross-over time on the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index. Immigration moves clear of the economy as top concern

Concern about immigration now takes over from the economy as main concern in @IpsosMORI Issues Index See pic.twitter.com/m2IDfDKVZU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2014 Concerns on the economy move to a six year low Concern about the economy drops to its lowest level for six years according to June @IpsosMORI Issues Index See pic.twitter.com/fQNHF8Gzfa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2014 Concerns over the EU move to nine year high Concern about the EU moves to nine year high in @IpsosMORI…

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Deferred Elections Results : June 26th 2014

Deferred Elections Results : June 26th 2014

Swanwick on Amber Valley (Conservative WIN in 2010) Result: Conservatives 474 (36% -14% on 2010) Labour 298 (23% -8% on 2010) Independent 252 (19%) UKIP 245 (19%) Lib Dem 32 (2% -17% on 2010) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 176 (13%) on a swing of 3% from Conservative to Labour New Amber Valley Composition: Labour 23, Conservatives 22 (Labour overall majority of 1) Colindale Dale on Barnet (3 Labour WINS in 2010) Result (by party and candidate) : Emboldened…

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The Cameron-EU stand-off over Jean-Claude Juncker: If the PM wins it would be a major coup

The Cameron-EU stand-off over Jean-Claude Juncker: If the PM wins it would be a major coup

As the Juncker decision gets closer a great story & pic in the @Telegraph pic.twitter.com/LoJWCn4VHA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2014 But if he fails then where does that leave Dave? Until now the row over Jean-Claude Juncker has made Cameron look increasingly isolated in Europe. What’s not generally appreciated in the UK is that in most other EU countries the recent European Parliament elections were presented as being about choosing the EU president as well as MEPs. Each…

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Deferred Elections postponed from May 22nd : June 26th 2014

Deferred Elections postponed from May 22nd : June 26th 2014

Swanwick on Amber Valley (Conservative WIN in 2010) Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 24, Conservatives 21 (Labour overall majority of 3) Result of ward at last election (2010): Conservative 1,610 (50%), Labour 983 (31%), Liberal Democrats 599 (19%) Conservative majority of 627 (19%) Candidates duly nominated: Joel Hunt (Lib Dem), Allen King (UKIP), George Soudah (Ind), Antony Tester (Lab), David Wilson (Con) Amber Valley has always been a bit of a Con / Lab battleground and since…

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Why UKIP could be heading for a general election share in the 10-15% range

Why UKIP could be heading for a general election share in the 10-15% range

If that happens it’s seriously bad news for Dave At a Political Studies Association briefing that I attended before the May 22nd Euros Prof Jane Green of Manchester University announced that British Election Study (BES) poll data sampled in February and March found that 57.6% of those planning to vote UKIP in the Euros also intended to vote for the party at GE2015. Why we should take this poll finding seriously is what happened five years ago when it gave…

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I’m not convinced that the Coulson conviction will have more than a short-term negative impact on Cameron

I’m not convinced that the Coulson conviction will have more than a short-term negative impact on Cameron

PMQs, as you’d expect, was dominated by yesterday’s news from the Old Bailey that former Number 10 Communications Director had been convicted in the hacking case. Ed Miliband worked hard to make capital and at best it was a score draw if not a victory for Dave. The PM, of course, has had several years to think about his PMQ responses should Coulson be convicted. I don’t think that the affair has that much salience now and the only line…

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If reports of private polling are accurate then the Greens could lose their only MP – Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavillion

If reports of private polling are accurate then the Greens could lose their only MP – Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavillion

You can still get better than evens on Labour At the last general election one of the most active constituency betting markets was on Brighton Pavillion where, as we all know, Caroline Lucas won through with a 31.3% vote share to become the Green party’s first MP. The result and vote changes are in the chart above. This victory came after years of work in the area during which the Greens built up a very strong councillor base. The big…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’ve been Working 9 to 5, or longer, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight? The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Antifrank looks at the Lab battleground. Antifrank looks at the Lib Dem battleground. Why changing leader now  WILL save the Lib Dems…

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