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Month: February 2014

Will Farage accept Clegg’s challenge?

Will Farage accept Clegg’s challenge?

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And will it help Clegg and the Lib Dems?   This morning Nick Clegg has challenged Nigel Farage to a live debate on Britain’s membership of the European Union before May’s elections. I wonder if this the new approach is to do with the fact that senior Lib Dem MPs such as Tim Farron are publicly warning that the party’s “very presence in the European Parliament could be at stake” as it contends with poor opinion poll ratings that consistently put the junior coalition party behind UKIP. Every…

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The first Indyref conducted after Osborne’s intervention is out

The first Indyref conducted after Osborne’s intervention is out

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And it’s great news for the Supporters of Yes as No’s lead slumps from 20% to 9% with Survation. As Mike correctly forecast the Edinburgh confrontation over the currency might be just what the YES campaign wants, as Yes goes up 6% and no goes down 5%, the changes are from the Survation poll carried out at the end of January. (Note the reason why the changes don’t net off to zero is because of rounding) The fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday…

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Looking ahead to the 2016 US Presidential Election

Looking ahead to the 2016 US Presidential Election

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The Republican Party Nominee My strategy has been to lay Chris Christie, even before his bridge problems. Some in the Republican Party have never forgiven him for his hug of President Obama during Hurricane Sandy and that’s influenced my thinking. But on who to back, I followed Mike’s tip to back Rand Paul at 50/1, he is now trading as low as 7/1 which makes this tip very profitable for anyone who followed it. The favourite is Marco Rubio, as the Senator…

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YouGov asked people to predict what the national voting intention figures would be at the end of 2014. Here are the results

YouGov asked people to predict what the national voting intention figures would be at the end of 2014. Here are the results

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YouGov recently ran a competition, open from January 17th-31st, that asked participants to estimate the end-of-year voting intention figures to win a prize, after Steve Thompson won last year’s competition by guessing each party’s position exactly (except for UKIP – he was 2 points high). The same question was then asked to the general public in a nationally representative survey. The predictions, averaged together, give a window into what direction British people see the winds of political change heading this…

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PB Poll on the Indyref

PB Poll on the Indyref

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What % will the Yes side get in the Indyref 0%-10% 10.01%-20% 20.01%-30% 30.01%-40% 40.01%-49.99% 50.01%-60% 60.01%-70% 70.01%-80% 80.01%-90% 90.01%-100%    pollcode.com free polls  Please vote and post your prediction on the thread. TSE

Labour to launch a decapitation strategy against Clegg?

Labour to launch a decapitation strategy against Clegg?

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This morning reports emerged that the Labour party is briefing that it has launched a “major bid” to defeat Clegg in his Sheffield Hallam constituency at the next election, with one NEC source declaring that it is “pouring resources” into the seat. There is a Lord Ashcroft poll from October 2010 which showed Labour trailing the Lib Dems by 2% in Sheffield Hallam, and marked shifts in the 2010 General Election voting if voters had known Clegg had gone into government…

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The impacts of the floods on the 2015 General Election

The impacts of the floods on the 2015 General Election

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Storm-hit coalition risks battering at the polls http://t.co/OCsHWRbbf1 — Times News (@TimesNewsdesk) February 17, 2014 On Sunday I speculated on whether the government’s response to the flooding would have an electoral effect. The Times have a piece today (££) which has analysed the constituencies that have suffered most with the recent extreme weather and there’s quite a few marginals affected.  Out of the Tories 40 most marginal seats, 15 have been affected by the recent extreme weather.  For the Lib Dems,…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker and have a Desire to delurk, why not delurk tonight. You’ll find posting on PB, The Sweetest Thing, I’m hoping that at least One lurker will delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Today on the Jeremy Kyle Show: “My coalition…

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