Browsed by
Month: January 2014

Stephen Dunn looks at the voters who’ll decide GE2015 – those who live in the marginals

Stephen Dunn looks at the voters who’ll decide GE2015 – those who live in the marginals

Comments 0 Comment

It’s the Demography, Stupid. The next General Election is a year and a half away, and it’s going to be interesting (as all elections are for gamblers). Labour currently have a consistent polling share which suggests a Labour majority, if they maintain it. But for predictive purposes, it’s interesting to look in some detail at who will actually decide the next election – Everyone, of course, but realistically the voters in the most marginal seats. Who are they, where are…

Read More Read More

Portsmouth South would make an interesting by-election but Hancock, surely, will hang on in there

Portsmouth South would make an interesting by-election but Hancock, surely, will hang on in there

Comments 0 Comment

Lots of talk tonight about Portsmouth South. This is what happened at GE2010 pic.twitter.com/2J7dmAzNbF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2014 @robfordmancs LD organisation in Portsmouth S even stronger than Eastleigh. This is about data & skilled foot soldiers — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2014 @MSmithsonPB Interesting – thanks Mike. Could be a crucial test of the power of local LD machines to hold back the tide, then. — Rob Ford (England) (@robfordmancs) January 22, 2014 @MSmithsonPB Yes, would…

Read More Read More

Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

Comments 0 Comment

Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, No Matter What, you should delurk. You’ll find posting, So Good,  don’t worry, I’m sure you won’t fall into the category of “You Say It Best, When You Say Nothing At All” The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Jobs figures suggest…

Read More Read More

The piece in the GE2015 jigsaw that even Lynton Crosby is unable to fix: LAB gets more seats than CON for the same vote share

The piece in the GE2015 jigsaw that even Lynton Crosby is unable to fix: LAB gets more seats than CON for the same vote share

Comments 0 Comment

What happens when you put CON 35% and LAB 35% into the Electoral Calculus seat calculator http://t.co/qP4NIfGVIM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2014 The challenge for the Tories is even bigger than the projection Everybody who follows UK politics knows that Labour can secure more seats on a given national vote share than the Tories or other parties. The above shows what happens on Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus seat porjector when vote shares of CON 35/LAB 35/LD 12/UKIP 10…

Read More Read More

By 40% to 39% men say Rennard should be allowed to remain in LDs. By 43% to 27% women say he shouldn’t

By 40% to 39% men say Rennard should be allowed to remain in LDs. By 43% to 27% women say he shouldn’t

Comments 0 Comment

What we have is a gender and a generational divide There’s a YouGov poll in the Times this morning in which there’s the first detailed questioning on whether Lord Rennard he should be allowed to stay with the Lib Dems or leave following the allegations of sexual harassment According to the paper’s report 40% said he should stay and 39% said he should leave. Among women, the split was 43% leave with only 27% saying he should stay. Amongst Lib…

Read More Read More

PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

Comments 0 Comment

Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you Wannabe a poster, Stop, lurking, Spice Up Your Life by delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) 8 reasons Labour has a good chance of an overall majority 5 ways to cheer up the Tories (and kill off the ‘nasty party’) Asking Conservatives to…

Read More Read More

How many of the CON 2010 entry will call it day?

How many of the CON 2010 entry will call it day?

Comments 0 Comment

Jessica Lee MP steps down: 11 per cent of Tory women elected in 2010 have decided to leave Parliament http://t.co/ksnr5xNqYQ — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) January 21, 2014 This looks problematic for the Tories The percentages in the CONHome article look quite stark particularly as this comes a week when women in politics have been under the spotlight. The fact that it refers just four puts it into a slightly different context. Clearly the reality of becoming an MP has not…

Read More Read More

Clegg will survive the Rennard crisis but if he doesn’t watch out for Norman Lamb, the LD John Major

Clegg will survive the Rennard crisis but if he doesn’t watch out for Norman Lamb, the LD John Major

Comments 0 Comment

In a crisis go for the grey haired man I’ve been getting a number of requests for my view on whether Clegg will survive the Rennard crisis and what my thoughts are on a likely successor. Certainly what appears to be open warfare between LD peers and the leadership together with the threatened legal action by Rennard make this a tricky period for Clegg. There might be factions who’ve never been supporters who could use the issue to try to…

Read More Read More