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Month: October 2013

There’s a mismatch between GE2015 overall outcome betting and the odds that can be had in individual seats

There’s a mismatch between GE2015 overall outcome betting and the odds that can be had in individual seats

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Richard Nabavi says don’t bet on a Tory majority The best odds you can currently get on a Conservative majority at the next election are 4.0 (3/1 in old money), which in isolation is a good bet if and only if you think the probability of a 2015 Cameron majority is higher than 25%. Of course, a Tory majority is not something which can happen independently of other eventualities; it can happen only if the Conservatives can hold on to…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. By the way, if you’re a lurker, why not delurk Right Now, It’s Ok to Delurk, you will feel Whole Again once you’ve delurked. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) David Cameron should look to Harold Macmillan for political guidance Why Cameron must fear a narrow…

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Time to have a dabble on Tristram Hunt at 33-1 for next LAB leader

Time to have a dabble on Tristram Hunt at 33-1 for next LAB leader

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LAB leader prospect Tristram Hunt went to Cambridge which last had a PM 78 years ago pic.twitter.com/jlbRSHyABn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 21, 2013 Overnight I’ve put bets on the new shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt, at 33/1 as next LAB leader. From what I can see he is only listed at Ladbrokes and PaddyPower both of whom have got him at 33/1. Hunt came to public prominence as a TV historian. He’s telegenic and, as you’d expect a good…

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Why Clegg thinks there are votes to be had in pursuing a fight with Gove on free schools

Why Clegg thinks there are votes to be had in pursuing a fight with Gove on free schools

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Educational issues have a particular salience amongst 2010 LDs 2010 LDs more likely to back LAB on education than current ones The paramount objective of the Lib Dems is to minimise seats losses at the general election and the argument with Gove on free schools helps in a number of ways. What we are talking about is niche marketing, sending signals to significant groups of electors in the seats that will matter to the party. In the key CON-LD battlegrounds…

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With so much difference between the week’s polls the best bet is to rely on ICM

With so much difference between the week’s polls the best bet is to rely on ICM

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How Betfair punters are seeing GE2015 So many polls – so little clarity With so many different pictures being recorded in the polls in the past week my normal recourse is to revert back to what I regard as the gold standard – the monthly phone poll from ICM. The firm was the top British pollster at three of the past four general elections and got the AV referendum right down to one decimlal point. This came out on Monday…

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Two very different pictures from the first two of tonight’s polls

Two very different pictures from the first two of tonight’s polls

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Closing the gap with ComRes online LAB moves to 11 percent lead with Opinium/Observer Other points from ComRes In a forced choice between Labour and the Conservatives, Labour leads as the party most trusted to … Make your family better off: LAB lead 7% Get the cost of living down: LAB lead 9% Keep prices down generally: LAB lead 11% Protect people’s jobs: LAB lead 16% Keep gas and electricity prices down: LAB lead 20% The Conservatives lead as the…

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My 70-1 Andrew Mitchell next CON leader bet is looking a tad more promising

My 70-1 Andrew Mitchell next CON leader bet is looking a tad more promising

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Could he fit the bill for the blues after a GE2015 defeat? Just before Christmas last year, a couple of days after the Michael Crick film raising doubts about the whole Plebgate issue, I put a bit of money on Andrew Mitchell for next CON leader with Betfair at 70/1. The last week has seen the affair move forward dramatically in a way that can only help Mitchell. The narrative can only move his way more. He looks like the…

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