Remember how the Sun’s decision to drop LAB was the big news when party was last in Brighton Sales drops & paywalls make press less important When this Sun published in Sept 2009 sales 3,079,998 Now 2,258,359l pic.twitter.com/ak3sLVIVyZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 24, 2013 Since then the circulation of almost all papers has dropped sharply The online presence is being reduced by paywalls
Wombwell on Barnsley (Lab Defence) Last Election (2012): Lab 52, Ind 6, Con 5 (Lab overall majority of 41) Last Election Results in electoral cycle 2010: Lab 2,617 (58%), Con 764 (17%), British National Party 738 (16%), Barnsley Independents 419 (9%) 2011: Lab 1,887 (65%), Barnsley Independents 440 (15%), Con 323 (11%), British National Party 218 (8%) 2012: Lab 1,769 (73%), Barnsley Independents 329 (14%), English Democrats 192 (8%), Con 124 (5%) Candidates duly nominated: Robert Frost (Lab), Kevin…
Two weeks ago it was 20% – now 26% Boost for Ed in YouGov’s best PM rating EdM sees 5% increase in his YouGov Best PM rating – though still behind Dave. Was 21% now 26% Dave 35% from 34% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2013 As reported overnight LAB YouGov lead up to 9% YouGov poll for Sun sees LAB take 9% lead CON 32% LAB 41% LD 8% UKIP 11% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 25, 2013
Latest from Betfair GE2015 outcome market – prices based on last trades expressed as %ages pic.twitter.com/ZkwFFuPEsc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 25, 2013 Only a few hours before the first post-speech poll Within the next few hours we should get the first full voting intention poll to have been carried out entirely after EdM’s big Brighton speech. Let’s hope that the Sun releases its YouGov survey this side of midnight rather than us having to wait until the morning. On…
The YouGov polling that’s said to have been behind LAB’s move Thanks to James Plunkett of the Energy Foundation and George Eaton of the New Statesman for highlighting this. The party cross-tab on this are interesting. A total of 51% of CON voters rated household bills compared with 46% of LAB ones. Of the list presented the one that is applicable to most people is “household bills” which might have impacted on the outcome. UPDATE – More YouGov polling is…
At the 2010 general election 24% of those who turned out voted for the Lib Dems and, as we all know, a large number have since shifted or are now saying don’t know. The biggest segment, apart from those sticking with Clegg’s party, have gone to LAB – a move that happened in the first year of the coalition. According to today’s YouGov poll the proportion of all 2010 LDs in the sample now voting LAB is 28.4% This is…
Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. By the way, if you’re a lurker, why not step on the Otherside of PB and start posting. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Miliband mantra delights the Labour party faithful Miliband speech – instant reactions Ed Miliband speech: panel verdict The 5 key pledges…
"Trader lost millions apparently trying to manipulate Intrade data to favour Mitt Romney" http://t.co/8n11xSshu8 @MSmithsonPB — Gavin Jackson (@GavinHJackson) September 24, 2013 So this was why Betfair and Intrade were so far apart The big political betting this afternoon is not EdM’s speech but a report from the US about how a single trader sought to manipulate the Romney price on Intrade in the run-up to last November’s White House election. The divergence of the two markets was something that…