EdM at TUC Only thing that matters electorally is that LAB keeps 2010 LDs who've switched My view: nothing's changed pic.twitter.com/8mAI3VMgS2

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 10, 2013

It’s been a big day for Ed Miliband and I got the sense that many of the media reps went away from his TUC speech disappointed that the story they were expecting didn’t happen.

For there was no booing or other obvious disent only a fairly lukewarm response from delegates.

But that doesn’t matter that much.

To repeat what I’ve written many times here in the past six months – the key electoral objective of EdM’s team is to retain the 2010 LD voters who switched to Labour in the first year of the coalition.

They represent between 5% and 7% of the electorate.

Assuming that those who voted for Gordon Brown’s party in 2010 remain, and the polls suggest they will, then it is the 2010 LDs which is the key voter segment.

For the Tories to have any chance of beating LAB on seats, never mind an overall majority, there has to be seepage of the 2010 switchers back to their former allegiance. There are no signs that that is happening.

Westminster groupthink ignores this simple electoral element. I don’t.

Mike Smithson

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