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Month: August 2013

The numbers of Lib Dem lost deposits at GE2015 could be in the hundreds

The numbers of Lib Dem lost deposits at GE2015 could be in the hundreds

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One feature of the recent bout of local by-elections as well as last week’s Welsh Assembly contest in Ynys Mons has been the huge collapse in the Lib Dem vote. At the Merton LBC by-election yesterday at Colliers Wood the party’s vote share slumped by 15.1% to just 2.2%. At Skelton in Redcar and Cleveland the drop was 11.3% to just 2.5%. What we are seeing is the product of the party’s GE2015 defence strategy of only focusing on those…

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The value bet on the CON poll progress is the 6-1 that they they’ll top the poll in next year’s Euros

The value bet on the CON poll progress is the 6-1 that they they’ll top the poll in next year’s Euros

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UKIP still odds on favourite to win most votes in next May's EU elections pic.twitter.com/XgrwyLktDC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2013 UKIP could have peaked a year too early It has almost been taken as read amongst the commentariat that UKIP will come top on votes in next year’s EU parliament elections. The result is that in the betting Farage’s party remains odds on favourite to do it. Yet another set of local by-elections overnight suggests that the fizz…

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Tonight’s local by-elections

Tonight’s local by-elections

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Let the count commence pic.twitter.com/so8zWMeVBm — Wimbledon Guardian (@WimbledonNews) August 8, 2013 Three LAB defences and a CON one Redcar and Cleveland UA, Skelton When fought last in 2011 it was: LAB 1238/921/876, CON 718/657, LD 312/269/248 Lab seat. Resignation Merton LBC, Colliers Wood When fought last in 2010 it was:LAB 2608/2367/2261, CON 1001/960/848, LD 888/804/608, GREEN 622 Labour seat. Death Waveney DC, Oulton When fought last in 2011 it was: LAB 502/420, IND 492, CON 474/372, GREEN 117, LD…

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The BBC’s Sporting Personality of the Year Election: Why I’m betting at an effective 33-1 that Andy Murray won’t do it

The BBC’s Sporting Personality of the Year Election: Why I’m betting at an effective 33-1 that Andy Murray won’t do it

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Betfair makes Andy Murray a 97%+ chance to be Sports Personality of the Year Odds too tight and I'm betting against pic.twitter.com/cjO1tq4EHG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 8, 2013 The annual SPOTY event is actually about an election and, over the years, has been covered in one way or another on PB. Clearly Andy Murray after his historic Wimbledon triumph is a firm odds-one favourite. But there are still more than four months to go and things can happen. My reading is…

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My pick of the best GE2015 single constituency bets

My pick of the best GE2015 single constituency bets

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All my choices are longer than evens GE2015 betting Bradford W Galloway is going to be tougher to beat than his 3/1 price suggests. Value bet pic.twitter.com/1WzICjg5Fs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 8, 2013 One of my best bets in 2012 was the 33/1 I got on George Galloway in the Bradford West by-election. My view then remains – Galloway is a formidable politician and he’s going to be a tough one to beat. 3/1 looks a good price. Link to…

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Advance notice: A PB event in Yorkshire July 2014

Advance notice: A PB event in Yorkshire July 2014

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David Herdson and I plan to host a PB event in Yorkshire in July next year and we wanted to sound out opinion to see if this would be popular. I’m going to be on holiday in the county for the Tour de France which has two Yorkshire stages on July 5th and 6th. David and I thought that a gathering in the evening on July 7th or 8th might be a good idea. The suggested location would be Ilkley….

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The great GE2015 argument goes on

The great GE2015 argument goes on

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The money's going on a CON majority on Betfair GE2015 outcome marker Was 20% chance 2 wks ago – now 24.4% See table pic.twitter.com/eMfzD6NQ0x — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 7, 2013 Electoral Calculus puts the chances of a CON majority at 3% http://t.co/jpwf0LYPCV Betfair punters make it 24% pic.twitter.com/rzfVy3pp9o — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 7, 2013

Take polls with large pinch of salt. Do not consume in excess!

Take polls with large pinch of salt. Do not consume in excess!

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A guest slot from Nick Sparrow – former head of polling at ICM In a search for more accurate vote intention estimates following the debacle of 1992, one modification we made was to prompt respondents with the names of the main political parties, Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat (and SNP or Plaid Cymru in relevant areas). The prompts reminded people of the existence of the Liberal Democrats – a partly forgotten alternative between elections. The prompts also may have had the…

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