The BBC’s Sporting Personality of the Year Election: Why I’m betting at an effective 33-1 that Andy Murray won’t do it
Betfair makes Andy Murray a 97%+ chance to be Sports Personality of the Year Odds too tight and I'm betting against pic.twitter.com/cjO1tq4EHG
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 8, 2013
The annual SPOTY event is actually about an election and, over the years, has been covered in one way or another on PB.
Clearly Andy Murray after his historic Wimbledon triumph is a firm odds-one favourite. But there are still more than four months to go and things can happen.
My reading is that the current Betfair prices – 1.02 BACK and 1.03 LAY – have just got too tight so I’ve put a bit on at an effective 33/1 that Andy won’t in fact do it.
The process, if it follows the usual BBC pattern, is for a shortlist of about 10 to be drawn up which viewers vote on, by telephone, on the night.
The cycling lobby, it should be noted, get themselves very well organised and three of the past five SPOTYs have been cyclists.
I’ve been quite impressed by the polling showing quite strong opposition to him being awarded an knighthood.
Anyway it is a bet and I like long odds winners.
Mike Smithson
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