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Month: July 2013

The coalition could be heading into stormy weather over the Royal Mail privatisation

The coalition could be heading into stormy weather over the Royal Mail privatisation

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The first polling shows the scale of the challenge In the first polling since Vince Cable’s Royal Mail sell-off announcement shows very substantial opposition right across the political spectrum. Even the Tory voters in the poll had more opposing the plan than supporting. With less than 22 months to go before the general election I wonder whether such a plan with so little support is a good idea. Certainly the arguments in favour need to be made more convincing if…

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LAB lead with YouGov down to 5 percent once again

LAB lead with YouGov down to 5 percent once again

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As ever we must not equate correlation with causation Once again the Sun has not disappointed us. Generally we have to wait until 6am for its daily YouGov poll to be released by the pollster. But if it is good for the blues then, like now, it is Tweeted early. The figures are above. The LAB share of 37% is the lowest for the party since May 29th and is 2 down on yesterday. The latest changes are all within…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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  Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re Under Pressure tonight, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  why not delurk, you’ll find posting on PB A Kind of Magic, The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)   Miliband shores up his leadership at noisy PMQs Why is Ed playing into the Tories hands…

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Those who bet that EdM would be out by the end of the year are probably going to be disappointed

Those who bet that EdM would be out by the end of the year are probably going to be disappointed

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EdM no longer on the danger list The Speccie's James Forsyth has a good summary of PMQS http://t.co/Vrgk69UawN pic.twitter.com/NnEl9MTGgr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 10, 2013 The blow up last week of the Falkirk selection contributed to EdM’s very poor start to July. He looked uncertain and less than self assured as he sought to deal with issues that opened up the whole question of Labour’s historical link with the trade union movement. This came at a time when the Labour’s…

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The real mug punters at the moment are those piling onto a CON majority at 3-1

The real mug punters at the moment are those piling onto a CON majority at 3-1

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Full Ladbrokes GE2015 betting LAB majority 5/4 (from 11/10) Hung parliament 13/8 CON maj 3/1 (from 7/2) UKIP maj 100/1 LD maj 200/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 9, 2013 @richardmarcj Bookies are just responding to fact that there are more mug UKIP punters about than LD ones ready to bet on overall majorities — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 9, 2013 The mood of optimism that’s been coming out of the Tory camp in recent days about GE2015 has inevitably affected the betting markets. Ladbrokes…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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  Home of the web’s best political conversation As we’re experiencing a Long Hot Summer, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  why not delurk, you should Jump at the opportunity, you’ll realise that it’s not No Good Advice, it’ll be good to hear The Sound of the Underground. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)…

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EdM takes on his paymasters

EdM takes on his paymasters

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This from @GeneralBoles Twitter's top political photo-shopper who as Nick Boles does a bit of MPing on the side pic.twitter.com/x0GYlJsHpd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 9, 2013 I love the old political maxim, repeated by Peter Kellner this morning, that you should “never let a serious crisis go to waste”. This is particularly important for opposition leaders because it can often be challenging for them to get any media attention as Cameron found during Gordon’s media honeymoon in 2007. It’s governments…

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As Ed prepares to take on the unions the CON share moves to six month high with YouGov

As Ed prepares to take on the unions the CON share moves to six month high with YouGov

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But the LAB lead is unchanged at 6% It’s only one poll and the changes are all within the margin of error but the Tories will take a lot of comfort from the first YouGov poll of the week which has its share at 34% – only three down on what it achieved at GE2010. The last time the party was on 34% was in January 2013 – so this is a six month high. The UKIP 10% equals the…

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