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Month: July 2013

British politics is perhaps more nuanced than Lynton Crosby thinks

British politics is perhaps more nuanced than Lynton Crosby thinks

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Lynton Crosby – the Australian campaigning expert said to be behind the attacks on LAB over the NHS pic.twitter.com/SmOznwaHeP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2013 Is his Oz template right for Britain? Whatever you might think of him the great contribution Oz campaigning “guru” Lynton Crosby has made to the current political scene has been to give the Tory party and particularly its MPs their confidence back. That is no mean feat. In recent weeks he is said to…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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  Home of the web’s best political conversation This Summer is very hot, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  why not Delurk tonight, Squeeze some time in your day to post on PB. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)   Peter Kellner of YouGov analyses that ICM Poll Whilst Martin Boon of ICM responds. …

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After this afternoon and last week’s PMQs there will be a lot of Bercow interventions tomorrow

After this afternoon and last week’s PMQs there will be a lot of Bercow interventions tomorrow

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PaddyPower Bercow Betting Interventions at tomorrow's PMQs 5/6 0-2 5/6 -3+ which I'm on http://t.co/45A6m1KRSH pic.twitter.com/DvSXWu6qeq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2013 Why I’m on at 3 or more with PaddyPower It’s hot a sticky at Westminster and the parliamentary recess is nearly upon us. This afternoon’s Commons NHS statement by Jeremy Hunt led to some of the most bad-tempered exchanges that we have seen in a long time. It’s hard to see how tomorrow’s PMQs is going to be much different….

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Populus responds to some of the points about its new online poll

Populus responds to some of the points about its new online poll

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Does “party ID” weighting understate UKIP? Yesterday I posted a couple of Tweets about the impact on the party ID weighting in the new online Populus poll which has just been launched. Instead of sticking with its traditional past vote weighting approach the firm had adopted party ID weightings based back to what was recorded in British Social Attitudes Survey of 2010, when, of course, UKIP support was much lower than it is today. The effect is quite marked as…

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Remember the 2009 Euro elections when ICM was the pollster most out with UKIP

Remember the 2009 Euro elections when ICM was the pollster most out with UKIP

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After last night’s ICM poll which has UKIP down to 7% with the CON and LAB level-pegging it is inevitable that people will focus on the firm particularly its record with Farage’s party. There’s little doubt at the moment that the main differences between the pollsters is what they are recording for UKIP. If they find Farage’s party getting a high share then the Tories are doing worse. The chart above shows the UKIP shares in the final polls before…

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Sensational ICM poll has the Tories drawing level with LAB

Sensational ICM poll has the Tories drawing level with LAB

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UKIP down 5 to 7% The fall of UKIP in tonight's ICM poll is quite sensational. In May it was 18%, June 12% and in this poll 7% CON the beneficiary — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2013 The ICM poll which has CON & LAB level is the best for the party since just before Osbo's March 2012 budget. Then CON was 3% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2013 Six polls in just two days

LAB 7 points ahead in new Populus online poll

LAB 7 points ahead in new Populus online poll

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But why oh why no prompts for UKIP? Populus is back doing voting intention surveys which is good news for poll watchers. The firm built up a strong reputation with its series for the Times which was finally dropped by the paper last year. It has done a lot of work for the Conservative party and Michael Ashcroft over the years and, indeed, the former boss, Andrew Cooper, now works at Number 10. Now the firm has gone online and…

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If current polling levels continue then UKIP must be in with a good chance of getting MPs

If current polling levels continue then UKIP must be in with a good chance of getting MPs

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Courtesy of @MSmithsonPB this table from Electoral Calculus shows projections for UKIP seats at different levels pic.twitter.com/H2B22Nl0vY — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 14, 2013 Is it worth a punt? The significant feature of the weekend polling was that three of the 4 firms reporting had such large shares for UKIP – not much down on what we were seeing in the immediate aftermath of the party’s spectacular local elections performance in May ComRes online had them at 18%, Opinium at…

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