In spite of the June polling decline UKIP are still odds on favourites to come top on votes at next year’s Euro
UKIP remain odds-on favourite to win most votes at Euro2014. See pic.twitter.com/xhe95mdgjs
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 2, 2013
I still think the Tories could surprise us
The 4% average poll decline experienced by UKIP last month has not impacted on the betting on next year’s Euro elections. As the chart shows they are still odds on favorite.
My money, at 10/1 is on the Tories coming out on top – a position they’ve achieved in every Euro election since the party list voting system came in. Even in the dark days for the party of 1999 William Hague led his party to a good victory over Labour.
Clearly things are different with the emergence of UKIP into a significant electoral force but I’m expecting a high octane campaign by both the Tories and Labour which will examine UKIP’s record in Brussels.
When you are the front-runner you’ve got to expect a lot more scrutiny and things like the attendance records of UKIP MEPs could be the focus for attacks.
Mike Smithson
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