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— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2013

There’s some polling by YouGov for The Times (££) which has attracted headlines such as “Voters trust Miliband less than Brown”, but analysing the figures the results aren’t as bad for Ed and Labour as it first appears

The Brown figures are from May 2010, shortly after polling day, whilst Ed’s figures have just been carried out.

Here are the results

More voters thought that Mr Brown cared about ordinary people (50 per cent versus 36 per cent for Mr Miliband); tried to do the right thing (56-39); or had a clear sense of purpose (51-27). The former Prime Minister also scored higher than his successor in terms of being trustworthy (34-29), decisive (36-19) or competent (42-28).

But when asked “Is Ed Miliband a better leader than Gordon Brown?” we get the following response.

The splits by of those planning to vote Labour in 2015 is 50 to 16, in Ed’s favour, for those planning to vote Lib Dem it is 34 to 24 in Ed’s favour, and those planning to vote UKIP in 2015, the split is 28 to 15 in Ed’s favour (the Conservative figure isn’t available in the Times’ articles)

From the Times’ article

Anthony Wells, of YouGov, said that the discrepancy between Mr Miliband being viewed as a better leader while appearing to trail Mr Brown in many respects could be explained by the timing of the previous questions. Voters, particularly those who had just backed Labour in May 2010, were likely to be better disposed towards Mr Brown in the aftermath of his defeat than when they looked back now…..the answer to a direct comparison showed that voters “clearly connect better to Ed Miliband than Gordon Brown”

However, if the next election is to be fought on competence and trustworthiness, the poll shows that

42% rate him (Ed Miliband) as incompetent, and 28% rate him as competent, 40% rate him as untrustworthy whilst 29% rate him as trustworthy.

The attribute ascribed to him by most voters — 57 per cent — was that he dithered.

From what I can see, there has been no equivalent polling carried out for David Cameron, so we can’t make any comparisons.

Ed can console himself, that with Ipsos-Mori, the gold standard of leadership ratings, he’s consistently led David Cameron for quite some time.

The Times piece also says Mr Miliband is aiming to use the next two months to show how he would “change the direction of Britain so it works for the many”, it will be interesting how this will change his ratings and the voting intention (if at all)

 

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is currently on holiday