Browsed by
Month: January 2013

The seats where the Tories ought to be praying for a Lib Dem revival

The seats where the Tories ought to be praying for a Lib Dem revival

Comments 0 Comment

Corporeal looks at the yellows in CON-LAB battle-grounds There seems have been few Conservative tears shed over the decline in Lib Dem poll ratings, but there might be at least a few blues quietly hoping for a yellow revival. The polling suggests that the Lib Dem vote will be declining severely. This will obviously affect the results in Lib Dem held seats (we’ll get to those) and have MPs facing LD challenges sleeping rather easier, but it’s also going to…

Read More Read More

Is LAB trying to spook Shapps with the publication of its target seat list?

Is LAB trying to spook Shapps with the publication of its target seat list?

Comments 0 Comment

Are all 106 seats named really targets? The big general election news today has been the publication by LAB of the 106 marginal seats that it will try to win in 2015. The full list is here. At the launch Tom Watson MP said the aim was to achieve an overall majority of 60 – if all 106 seats were won then it would be 80. But I just wonder how serious the red team is and whether this is…

Read More Read More

A challenging time for LAB as the negative impact of Osborne’s March 2012 budget appears to be waning

A challenging time for LAB as the negative impact of Osborne’s March 2012 budget appears to be waning

Comments 0 Comment

Fewer people are blaming the CON-LD coalition for the cuts than at any time since the March 2012 budget. See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2013 32 months after losing power LAB is still being blamed YouGov’s regular tracker “Who’s most to blame for current spending cuts?” is one I return to time and time again because I believe it might be a good pointer by the time we get to 2015. Today’s latest figures are refelected…

Read More Read More

The power of incumbency: The 2010 LAB experience

The power of incumbency: The 2010 LAB experience

Comments 0 Comment

2010 election: How LAB incumbents not implicated in expenses scandal did against those who were and new candidates. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2013 Even expenses scandal MPs did better This is the second our charts based on data from a post-2010 paper by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and Dr Rob Ford, and looks at the impact of incumbency at the 2010 general election. This time the focus is on the governing party that was seeking…

Read More Read More

Were Dave and Nick convincing that the coalition will go the full distance?

Were Dave and Nick convincing that the coalition will go the full distance?

Comments 0 Comment

Punters not totally convinced that the coalition will go the full distance.See timing of election prices twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2013 Should we be betting on a pre-2015 election? My view remains that the glue that bonds the coalition partners together is the LAB poll ratings. As long as it looks as though both coalition partners would be hammered then they are going to stick it out. Now if the Tories could stage a remarkable recovery then…

Read More Read More

EdM got the bottle to replace Ed Balls as shadow chancellor with his brother?

EdM got the bottle to replace Ed Balls as shadow chancellor with his brother?

Comments 0 Comment

PaddyPower now make Ed Balls 6/1 to be next chancellor – that looks a good bet.bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2013 David Miliband is said to want to return PaddyPower is offering what seems a very generous price of 6/1 on Ed Balls becoming the next Chancellor. The chances must be that Osborne is NOT going replaced this side of the general election and LAB is in a strong position win most seats and possibly a majority….

Read More Read More

EdM, Dave and Nick should all be happy with first 2014 Euro elections poll

EdM, Dave and Nick should all be happy with first 2014 Euro elections poll

Comments 0 Comment

LAB set to double 2009 vote share according to first 2014 Euro election poll. Ukip up but in 3rd place behind CON twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2013 Survation has UKIP up on 2009 but down to 3rd place My chart shows the findings of the weekend’s Survation poll on the 2014 Euro elections and compares the vote shares from June 2009 when the elections were last held. Then was very much a low point for the Brown…

Read More Read More

UKIP, the European elections in 2014 and beyond

UKIP, the European elections in 2014 and beyond

Comments 0 Comment

In the Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday, one of the supplementary questions asked about voting intentions in the 2014 European Parliament elections, UKIP are on the threshold of pushing the Conservatives into third place, the full results are below. Conservatives 24% Labour 31% Lib Dem 11% UKIP 22% Paddy Power have a market on which party will be the Largest UK party in European Parliament after the 2014 elections. Paddy Power are currently offering 3/1 on UKIP being the largest…

Read More Read More