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Month: September 2012

Will Romney pay an electoral price for his “47 percent” gaffe?

Will Romney pay an electoral price for his “47 percent” gaffe?

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Re: 47%: You’ll win most bets in the end by assuming media has overplayed the importance of a gaffe. It could matter, but want to see polls. — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) September 19, 2012 And yet, Romney feels like he’s playing a strategy where his pitch maxes out at 47%-49% of voters. — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) September 19, 2012 In other words: not sure that 47% will give Obama much immediate help in polls. But could lower Romney’s ceiling. —…

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One Labour voter in three tell Populus that they would prefer Cameron to Miliband as Prime Minister

One Labour voter in three tell Populus that they would prefer Cameron to Miliband as Prime Minister

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Is the LAB polling position flaky? Full details from the Populus survey are out and give some pointers to the apparently contradictory findings. There are two points to note: a very high number of 2010 CON and LD voters saying don’t know or refused. With the former the proportion was 23% and the latter 26%. Although Populus make a limited adjustment to deal with this the overall pool of of voters on which the VI calculation is based is reduced….

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Labour maybe 15 percent ahead in the overnight Populus poll but the leader who should be most worried is Ed Miliband

Labour maybe 15 percent ahead in the overnight Populus poll but the leader who should be most worried is Ed Miliband

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When forced to choose just 31% want Ed as PM The dramatic polling news overnight from Populus had Labour move to a 15% lead over the Tories. The figures, with changes on the last survey from the pollster in July, were CON 30%(-4): LAB 45%(+5): LD 10%(-2). That’s the biggest lead we’ve seen since the election in a telephone poll where certainty to vote is one of the key determinants. On the face of it, then, seriously good news for…

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At some stage the Times will stop teasing us over its Populus poll

At some stage the Times will stop teasing us over its Populus poll

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… In the first instalment of the Times / Populus pre conference mega poll…. — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) September 17, 2012 Dramatic and ambivalent and complex. Tonight’s Populus poll cannot be explained in a sentence, but cleverly captures the voters’ dilemma… — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) September 17, 2012 @samcoatestimes Well tell us the Populus numbers then or are you going to tease us all night? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 17, 2012 This post will be updated when…

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Could Romney win the popular vote but lose the White House

Could Romney win the popular vote but lose the White House

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Ladbrokes are offering 16/1 against such an eventuality With Romney and Obama still pretty close in the national polls Ladbrokes have put up a market that we could have a repeat of the 2000 situation where the popular vote winner (Al Gore) lost the race because George W Bush won more electoral college votes. All states are allocated a number of electoral college votes and winner of the election is the one who secures 270 or more. In most of…

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Why Tim Farron shouldn’t be written off as Nick Clegg’s successor

Why Tim Farron shouldn’t be written off as Nick Clegg’s successor

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The man who squeezed the LAB vote down to almost nothing With Nick Clegg’s YouGov ratings dropping to its lowest level ever, a net -61%, inevitably the speculation in the run up to the Lib Dem conference on Saturday will be on how secure his position is. Could we see a leadership contest this side of the general election? That won’t be decided by delegates but by the party’s 57 MPs many of whom are feeling less than comfortable about…

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The Real Clear Politics polling averages – eight days after the Democratic Convention

The Real Clear Politics polling averages – eight days after the Democratic Convention

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Note you can move the cursor right across the chart to get the figures on any day in the past year. This is the chart for Ohio – a state that over the past 88 years has only been taken by the Republicans when they have won the presidency. But it looks more competitive in Virginia – another key swing state. Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB