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Month: June 2012

The Tories now a 28.57 pc chance for a majority

The Tories now a 28.57 pc chance for a majority

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CON MAJORITY 28.57% LAB MAJORITY 33.55% NO MAJORITY 37.03% In January punters gave the blues a 42% chance The first PMQs after the extended break seems a good opportunity to introduce the punters’ general election forecast – something that we’ll come back to repeatedly over the next two and a half years. The percentages are based on the latest Betfair betting exchange prices. These are calculated by taking the last price traded on the exchange and presenting that as a…

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Is the Lib Dem Hunt abstention plan the worst of both worlds?

Is the Lib Dem Hunt abstention plan the worst of both worlds?

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That this House believes that the Secretary of State for Culture Olympics, Media and Sport should be referred to the Independent Adviser on Ministers’ Interests to investigate whether he breached paragraph 1.2c (giving accurate and truthful information to Parliament) and paragraph 3.3 (responsibility for his special adviser) of the Ministerial Code. Surely they should be voting in favour? So the stage is set for tomorrow’s commons vote on whether Cameron was right not to refer Jeremy Hunt to the Independent…

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How long will Nick Clegg remain as leader of the Lib Dems?

How long will Nick Clegg remain as leader of the Lib Dems?

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When will Nick Clegg cease to be leader of the Lib Dems? Before May 31st 2013 June 2013 – May 2014 June 2014 – May 2015 June 2015 – May, 2016 June 2016 or after      Take part in the PB Wisdom Survey On the face of it the party leader whose position is most precarious is Nick Clegg whose party has seen a dramatic decline since the heady days of the 2010 general election. The Lib Dem polling…

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Remember the Sun front page from election day 2010

Remember the Sun front page from election day 2010

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The endorsement that failed to get the Tories a majority In spite of the backing of the Sun, of course, Dave didn’t win a majority. His party’s national vote share edged up just 3.7% and in spite of winning 100+ seats the Tories fell short. The final divide was the Conservative party 306 to 344 non-Tory seats. The 2010 outcome was unlike the paper’s endorsements at the 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections. I also wonder whether…

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Why did 308 LAB MPs ever give this man a coronation?

Why did 308 LAB MPs ever give this man a coronation?

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A reminder from five years ago Today’s appearance before the Leveson inquiry by Gordon Brown is a reminder of what to me was the most appalling mistake in modern politics – the decision by 308 Labour MPs to allow Gordon Brown to be elected leader unopposed in May 2007. The Brown campaign went to extraordinary lengths to ensure that no other candidate was able to reach the required threshold of nominations to be on the ballot – and so Gordon…

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Gordon Brown at Leveson

Gordon Brown at Leveson

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Jay to Brown: “Were your aides involved in trying to force Mr Blair’s resignation?” “I would hope not”Not a denial! — glenoglazaSky (@glenoglazaSky) June 11, 2012 GB: “This call did not happen” – IE Rupert Murdoch lied on oath – a weighty allegation to make. — adamboulton (@adamboultonSKY) June 11, 2012 This Leveson testimony is, unfortunately, embarrassing. It should be stopped before any more damage is done. — Philip Collins (@PCollinsTimes) June 11, 2012 Gordon Brown’s comments on the activities…

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Is Peter Oborne right – Dave’s job could be on the line?

Is Peter Oborne right – Dave’s job could be on the line?

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Channel 4 How dangerous is this week for the PM? There was, I believe, a degree of complacency in relation to Cameron in the previous thread on which of the three main party leaders would still be there at the general election. He’s still got a pile of hurdles to surmount. This week sees Dave and other leading figures including George going before Leveson as well as the Labour-generated debate on his handling of Jeremy Hunt. The real danger for…

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What’ll be the leader line-up for 2015?

What’ll be the leader line-up for 2015?

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Welcome to Betfair’s new market Betfair have just introduced what proved to be one of the most lively betting exchange markets in the three years leading up to the 2005 general election. It’s dead simple. The options are; Cameron/Miliband/Clegg Cameron/Miliband Cameron/Clegg Miliband/Clegg Cameron alone Miliband alone Clegg alone None of them Back in the 2004/2005 it was this market where the action was ahead of Iain Duncan Smith’s forced departure and there were moments when both Blair and Kennedy looked…

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