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Month: May 2012

Is this the man who should be in Number 11 ?

Is this the man who should be in Number 11 ?

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The economic and political narrative has changed markedly for the government since the budget, and deteriorated further when it was officially declared that we were in a double dip recession. Last night’s u-turns on pasties and caravans have added to that poor narrative (Pasty la vista, Taxman as The Sun’s front page put it) The ComRes polling last night also shows Osborne’s problem Some 72 per cent of the public agree that it is time for the Coalition to change its policy…

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Labour lead down to 8 with ComRes phone poll

Labour lead down to 8 with ComRes phone poll

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Conservatives 34 (+1) Labour 42 (-1) Lib Dems 11 (nc) Others 13 (nc) The changes are from the last ComRes telephone poll which was carried out in March. There is a large gender gap: 40 per cent of male voters will vote Conservative, 39 per cent  Labour and 8 per cent Lib Dem. But only 29 per cent of women voters  will vote Conservative, while 45 per cent  will vote Labour, and 14 per cent Lib Dem. On the economy. Seven…

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Markets on Greece

Markets on Greece

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IG have put up a couple of markets in the past week regarding Greece. The bets can be located in their binary betting market section. TSE Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.

How does the coalition untangle itself before the election?

How does the coalition untangle itself before the election?

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It seems very unlikely that the coalition parties will have an electoral pact/coupon at the next general election, so Vince Cable’s comments on the BBC last night confirm that (if confirmation was needed). He said “Everybody involved knows that before the next general election – the two parties will have to establish their own separate platforms and identity but how that disengagement takes place, over what time period is very much an issue for the future, certainly not something we’re talking…

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Ed retains his YouGov leadership lead for a third week.

Ed retains his YouGov leadership lead for a third week.

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The Leadership scores David Cameron is on minus 26 (minus 30 last week) Ed Miliband is on minus 23 (minus 27 last week) Nick Clegg is on minus 55 (minus 56 last week) Other yougov polling. The coverage of Cameron “chillaxing” doesn’t seem to have done any particular damage – only 33% say that he doesn’t work hard enough, compared to 39% who think he gets the balance right and 4% who think he works too hard. The YouGov VI…

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The Eurovision open thread

The Eurovision open thread

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Tonight is that great annual event, The Eurovision song contest. It will be interesting to see if the issues in the Eurozone affects voting tonight. I’m not expecting the Germans to give the Greeks zwölf punkte or the Greeks to give the Germans δώδεκα σημεία, but will the rest of Europe give the Greeks a sympathy vote? There have been rumours that some countries don’t want their contestants winning as they don’t want the costs of hosting the event next year…

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Should you be betting on PRESIDENT Romney?

Should you be betting on PRESIDENT Romney?

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Betfair Politics Could we see the prices converge? At the start of May I suggested that a bet on Romney for president looked like a value proposition. At the time his Betfair price was 3.15 and I put the equivalent of three months of my state pension on it. Since then the price has edged in and is now at 2.7 – that’s 1.7/1 for those who have yet to come to terms with the betting exchange’s odds format. I…

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