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Something tells me this Budget will showcase Osborne’s love of political trap-setting for his opponents. He finds the sport irresistible. — Stewart Wood (@StewartWood) March 18, 2012 Will traps be sets for The Eds, Nick and the unions? At the weekend Ed Miliband’s top adviser and the man who played a key part in his leadership victory, Stewart (now Lord) Wood made the above observation about today’s budget. And when Stewart talks about traps being set he knows what he’s…

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Google politics The question isn’t who’s the nominee. It’s whether Romney soars or limps into Tampa. That’s not determined yet. — Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) March 21, 2012 Romney unable to break through with key constituencies tonight, like voters who do not like Mitt Romney. — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) March 21, 2012 Gingrich slumps to single figures? Mitt Romney had his predicted big win in Illinois overnight and is set, surely, to take the nomination? The state is a big one…

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And MORI has a sharp drop for LAB With the budget tomorrow, the Illinois primary and now the March MORI poll there’s a lot of news about. MORI has CON 36 (+1); LAB 37 (-4); LD 11 (-1) so the only big changes has been to the LAB share. What was a 6% LAB lead last month has become a 1% lead now. NOTE: I’m on holiday at the moment and am not spending much time on the site or…

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Is Ken being hit by the tax revelations? A new YouGOV poll has Boris at 54% to Ken’s 46% UPDATE: Boris price tightens sharply following poll Betfair Politics As can be seen from the chart punters now give Boris a 70% chance of victory. @MikeSmithsonOGH

Would such a move be a Tory “Clause 4 moment”? There’s an interesting article in the Guardian by Tim Montgomerie under the heading Class is the Conservative clause IV – The Tory party must appeal to the northern strivers to have any hope of another outright election victory He develops an argument first put last November when he argued that for his party to win a majority they had to be seen to be on the side of “the little…

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Others slip back sharply The March ICM poll for the Guardian is out and the figures are above. LAB is down; CON and the LDs are up. ICM has the best record for accuracy of the main pollsters and Labour/EdM must be delighted that the firm does not have the daily poll contract with News International. If numbers like this were coming out five times a week then it would really add to the pressure on the LAB leadership. The…

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Or will it survive until the May 2015 election? As I have mentioned I’m currently on holiday close to the Scottish border near Berwick and am not posting as much as usual. The fun-poll was created to help fill in during the afternoons. When will the coalition break-up? By the end of 2012 By the end of 2013 By the end of 2014 It will survive until the general election    @MikeSmithsonOGH

Should you be betting on the 3/1 incumbent? We are just over a month away from the first round of the French presidential election. Voting takes place on Sunday April 22nd with the final run-off of the top two scheduled for a fortnight later on May 6th – there days after the UK’s big elections. In the first round there are ten contenders and at one stage there was a question as to whether Sarkozy would even make the final…

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