How should he use his £200 worth of free bets? Firstly thanks to Marf for her new wonderful cartoon which will become the logo for the year’s poster of the year contest – due to take place over the holiday period. Secondly well done to Old_Labour who has won the PB Feltham by election competition Ranking Entrant Total error 1 old_labour 3.72 2 Harry Hayfield 4.04 3 Peter 4.71 4 Iapsis 4.89 5= Nick Palmer 5.09 5= TomS 5.09 5=…
How likely is a change before the election? Thursday’s by-election win notwithstanding, the last month has not been a good one for Ed Miliband. Labour’s lead in the polls has evaporated and he’s been seen to under-perform both in response to the Autumn Statement and at PMQs, resulting in hostile off-the-record briefings from Shadow Cabinet members, never mind backbenchers or commentators. That’s inevitably led to speculation about his future as Labour leader, and as speculation is – in both senses…
I’ve been very struck by the number of tributes today to Christopher Hitchens who has died at the age of just 61. Above is Marf’s tribute. This lecture by Hitchens, here, gives a good feel for the man. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
Is the job going to the man Ed couldn’t remember? This weekend we find out who will be Labour’s next leader in Scotland. From early on in this protracted contest I’ve backed Ken Macintosh at a range of prices averaging 5/1. MacIntosh is the best communicator of all 3 candidates and only he has the personality to present an attractive case. I had hoped that he would be a runaway leader however his chief rival Lamont has performed well with…
Party Share Change LABOUR 54.42 +10.79 CONSERVATIVE 27.71 -6.32 LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 5.87 -7,87 UKIP 5.49 +3.45 The good news and bad news Good news for Labour who saw an 8.5% swing from the Tories after a week when their national poll lead had vanished. More evidence of how effective the party is at defending by-elections. An excellent performance. Bad news for democracy because the turnout was just over 28% – the lowest for more than a decade. Good news for…
The final GOP Iowa debate and Feltham It’s Thursday and in Sioux City in Iowa there’s the last big candidate’s debate before the state’s caucuses on Tuesday January 3rd. This comes at a critical time for all the candidates. New polling in the state has Romney back ahead in the state with Ron Paul doing very well. There’s been massive negative advertising from both to try to undermine ex-speaker Newt Gingrich. Judging by the numbers this seems to be working….
Does the 2012 process make a late entrant more likely? There’s been a lot of speculation in recent days on some US sites on the possibility that the eventual nominee to face Barack Obama may not be a current runner. There are even suggestions of a brokered convention when a deal is done behind closed doors. What’s driving this is the fact that both Mitt Romney and the current front-runner in the polls, Newt Gingrich, have very little support from…
Electoral Commission What proportion voted before the Brussels veto? When Labour decided to hold a speedy pre-Christmas by-election in Feltham & Heston only a short period after the death of former MP, Alan Keen, nobody could have foreseen that the political environment could have shifted. It all must have seemed pretty straight forward. Get it over with quickly with the expectation that the party will be returned again with reasonable majority on a reduced turnout. Well as we’ve seen in…