What’ll be the size of the red wedge after tonight? Whenever you talk of gains and losses in local elections the critical factor is the starting point – how many seats that are up for election are held by the respective parties. The last time most of those council seats that are being fought over today was in 2007 – when Labour had a pretty poor year coming out with just over 17% of the seats being contested. The Tories,…
Cast your vote in the quickie election day poll While we wait for some hard news let’s speculate about the Great 2011 Polling Race. The next twenty-four hours or so are going to be pretty tense for the four polling organisations that carried out regular AV surveys as well as a final week poll. Their projected outcomes – a NO victory – are not in doubt but which one will be nearest to the vote share? There is enormous kudos…
It does look like there’ll be an exit poll YouGov has been polling during the days asking how people have voted and I know that the firm’s deputy head of political polling, Anthony Wells, is at BBC TV centre from where the results programme will be broadcast. So not long to wait. UPDATE: Just heard that there is NO YouGov exit poll. I was adding 2 and 2 together and making five. Sorry folks. More of Marf’s work can be…
Can you post brief reports? To help us get a sense of how things look on the ground can you let fellow PBers know what things are like in your area? I’ve been doing some telling and at my polling station they had issued less than 10% of the ballots by 2pm. That sounds very low especially as there is the election for mayor, all the borough councillors as well as the referendum. Normally in this ward we get about…
Telegraph Is Brogan right about Clegg winning the “big battle”? In an interesting piece for the Telegraph Ben Brogan is arguing that on the key policy issues it is the LDs who are largely setting the agenda. “.. No wonder Tories hope that from tomorrow, the Lib Dems will cease to call the tune. The dog will be free to wag its tail again – indeed, if anything, Mr Cameron will have to restrain those urging him to call an…
A PB guest slot by Gavin Baylis Some early polls showed the Yes campaign leading in the alternative vote (AV) referendum; but the final polls suggest an overwhelming defeat. So where did it all go wrong? Firstly, undecided voters tend to back the status quo in the final stages of the campaign. In the US, pollsters find there are many ‘don’t knows’ as well as supporters and opponents of an incumbent. Pollsters argue that in early polls, what matters is…
The latest PAPA – the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average is just out and has Labour dropping below the 40% mark for the first time this year. The calculation is based by taking an average of the most recent polls from the firms that do regular political polling. If a firm does not publish a survey for more than a month then their numbers drop out. Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % ICM/Guardian 03/05/11 36 37 15…
UPDATED What’ll be the impact of such an overwhelming defeat for YES? The final AV referendum polls are coming out and the latest, from ICM, has NO with an overwhelming 68-32 lead. If the split is anywhere near this tomorrow it will be a devastating blow to Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. There’s no consolation for them in the figures which represent a remarkable victory for David Cameron who has campaigned so effectively against the changes. Still to come are…