Will he go or will he stay?

The Huhne speeding points allegation story is the main lead in the Telegraph and Mail this morning as well as getting a lot of coverage elsewhere.

There’s also a lively betting market from Ladbrokes developing on whether the Energy Secretary will survive as a cabinet minister beyond the end of May. Currently it’s 4/7 that he will hang on with 5/4 that he won’t.

Ladbrokes also have the best price, 1/2, on Huhne being the next cabinet minister to leave.

Are any of these worth a bet? Huhne is a tough cookie and hugely resilient and, the tendency in these situations, as we saw with William Hague last autumn, is for ministers to hold on.

The survival till the end of the month bet looked reasonable value at 2/1 when the market was launched on Friday. I’m less sure about the current pricing. This could drag on for many weeks and possibly months.

The next cabinet minister to leave bet at 1/2 looks too tight for me – and there’s the risk something could happen to one of Huhne’s colleagues in the meantime. This would mean. of course, that you’d be a loser irrespective of what happens to the energy secretary.

One bet I would NOT recommend: the 3/1 that Huhne will be next Lib Dem leader.

Mike Smithson