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Month: April 2011

Could the “worm” really change an election outcome?

Could the “worm” really change an election outcome?

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Are researchers stretching conclusions too far? There’s an academic report out that suggests that devices such as the “Worm”, seen in some of the broadcasts of last April’s leaders’ TV debates, could influence the views of voters and possibly change an electoral outcome. Professor Jeff Bowers of Bristol University and Professor Colin Davis, from Royal Holloway, carried out their study by manipulating a worm and superimposing it on a live broadcast of the final election debate in Bristol. Two groups…

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Does the coalition need a Malcolm Tucker?

Does the coalition need a Malcolm Tucker?

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Is the problem about presentation and coordination?. Just looking back at an old episode of “In the thick of it” and it struck me that a Malcolm Tucker figure might be what Number 10 needs at the moment. What’s coming over as a mess would is down to a lack of focus and poor coordination. A Tucker would certainly help. Number 10 seems to be missing Andy Coulson and the new guy has got a lot to learn. Mike Smithson

Is it down to “Non-FPTP Virgins” and Age?

Is it down to “Non-FPTP Virgins” and Age?

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The above charts show two sets of data with the referendum voting intentions of decided voters from the latest YouGov poll. The first shows how the referendum is being viewed by different age groups and illustrates the heavy reliance of YES voters in the younger age groups who are, of course, less likely to vote. It should be noted that YouGov did ask a voting certainty question and the splits reflect that. Our second chart shows the regional splits with…

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How’s Labour done increasing candidate numbers?

How’s Labour done increasing candidate numbers?

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On Monday PB featured the first part part of the above chart showing the change in the numbers of Labour candidates fielded at local elections going back to 1991. Harriet Harman was saying last month that she was hoping that the total they’d have standing would be a thirty year high. I’ve not yet seen an overall computation but returning to Devon we see there has been in an increase in all the councils – but the party is still…

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Labour 15 points behind in the “blame game” tracker

Labour 15 points behind in the “blame game” tracker

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The latest YouGov “blame game” tracker is out and shows a slight improvement for Labour with the gap at 15 points. Every two weeks YouGov panellists are asked the same question on which is most responsible for the spending cuts. As can be seen Labour has continued to attract substantially more blame than the coalition though the situation is a lot better than it was last June. But things have remained fairly static since November. This is one regular non-voting…

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Marf on interns and Clegg’s social mobility programme

Marf on interns and Clegg’s social mobility programme

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There’s an exhibition currently going on of many of Marf’s PB cartoons at the Guildhall Gallery in the City of London. Marf herself will be there from mid-afternoon on Monday April 18th 2011 ahead of the PB party that evening at the Dirty Dicks pub opposite Liverpool Street station. Mike Smithson

Nick Sparrow’s April polling column

Nick Sparrow’s April polling column

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Online polls rule. OK? Online polls are taking over the UK polling industry. So far in 2011 no less than 96 vote intention polls have been published, 84 of which have been conducted online, just 12 by telephone. Of the 84 online polls 63 (and counting …) have been conducted by YouGov, 21 by others. On average, telephone polls have had the Conservatives and Labour each around 1.5% lower than online polls and perhaps most significantly for the tone of…

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How many 100s of candidates have won without contests?

How many 100s of candidates have won without contests?

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Why are so many being given a free ride? We’ll have to wait until the official lists are published tomorrow but the big trend developing overnight in the May 5th local elections is that hundreds of seats are not being contested. There’s been one comment after another like these on last night’s threads:- Middle Englander:” Wychavon, Worcestershire: 45 seat council 12 Conservatives returned unopposed and 3 assured compared to just 2 assured in 2007 1 Lib Dem returned unopposed, the…

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