Has opinion now calmed down?

Has opinion now calmed down?

How PAPA has moved since the election

Month Ends CON % LAB % LD %
Election 37.0 29.7 23.6
June 2010 40.2 37.2 17.2
Jul 10 37.6 37.2 15.2
Aug 10 39.3 36.0 15.0
Sept 10 40.0 36.7 15.0
Oct 10 37.8 37.0 14.8
Nov 10 37.2 38.5 12.5
Dec 10 37.2 39.8 10.6
Jan 11 34.8 42.0 11.4
Feb 11 34.8 40.3 12.5
Mar 11 35.2 40.3 11.7

Ever since PAPA – the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average – was introduced last autumn people have suggested that I should produce regular updates and charts so we can plot the trends.

I have finally got round to it and plan to update the chart at the end of each month.

PAPA is calculated by taking the average shares for the three main parties from the latest poll of from each of the polling firms in the preceding month.

Unlike the UKPolling Report average, produced by Anthony Wells of YouGov, PAPA does not discriminate for or against any pollster and only includes the latest survey from each of the firms. The aim is to recalculate it as each new poll comes out or as old polls drop out after passing the month-old point.

As can be seen Labour reached a high point in January and have edged a touch back since then. The Lib Dems dropped to a low in December after the fees issue but have recovered a notch. The Tory share has been pretty stable since December.

NOTE: I’m not very experienced at producing charts and if any PBer can create a template that’s better than what’s above I’d be delighted to consider it.

Mike Smithson

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