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Category: PAPA

David Herdson: The March PB Polling Average: it’s still neck-and-neck and Harry Hayfield’s by election preview

David Herdson: The March PB Polling Average: it’s still neck-and-neck and Harry Hayfield’s by election preview

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The squeeze is on the smaller players That cloud looks like a tree. Or a bird. Or a flower. It’s human nature to see patterns in chaos and further, to try to rationalise and explain those patterns. Hence earthquakes are still archaically ‘acts of God’. Hence also the interpretation of the four point Labour lead in the YouGov poll published after the Cameron-Miliband interviews and Q&A as a Miliband ‘win’. Given that YouGov routinely publish over 20 polls a month,…

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Could the Tories soon be back in the lead?

Could the Tories soon be back in the lead?

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Latest PAPA CON 37: LAB 38.6: LD 11.8 The latest PAPA, the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average has Labour with its smallest lead over the Tories since November 2010 and if the trend shown in the chart continues we could be heading another cross-over. Even the latest YouGov – which has had Miliband’s party in the 40s in every single poll in 2011, has the gap down to just two points. Certainly the Tories appear to be getting a polling boost…

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Labour’s PAPA share drops to a 2011 low

Labour’s PAPA share drops to a 2011 low

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The latest PAPA – the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average is just out and has Labour dropping below the 40% mark for the first time this year. The calculation is based by taking an average of the most recent polls from the firms that do regular political polling. If a firm does not publish a survey for more than a month then their numbers drop out. Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % ICM/Guardian 03/05/11 36 37 15…

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Why is the Tory vote share holding up?

Why is the Tory vote share holding up?

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What happened to the unpopularity Cameron predicted? It’s been an expectation of many pundits and politicians that introducing government cuts will make the government unpopular. Two months ago, David Cameron himself repeated that sentiment. It’s certainly true that for the Lib Dems, government has brought unpopularity but the Tory share has remained just about unchanged. Even the Lib Dems may not be suffering from the cuts in general. The tuition fees issue and trust issue generally has been corrosive and…

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Has opinion now calmed down?

Has opinion now calmed down?

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How PAPA has moved since the election Month Ends CON % LAB % LD % Election 37.0 29.7 23.6 June 2010 40.2 37.2 17.2 Jul 10 37.6 37.2 15.2 Aug 10 39.3 36.0 15.0 Sept 10 40.0 36.7 15.0 Oct 10 37.8 37.0 14.8 Nov 10 37.2 38.5 12.5 Dec 10 37.2 39.8 10.6 Jan 11 34.8 42.0 11.4 Feb 11 34.8 40.3 12.5 Mar 11 35.2 40.3 11.7 Ever since PAPA – the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average – was…

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Is it Labour’s ratings that will keep EdM afloat?

Is it Labour’s ratings that will keep EdM afloat?

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How serious is it for the party’s new leader? The eighteen or so hours since the end of PMQs yesterday the big focus at Westminster has been on Labour’s leader of only ten weeks – Ed Miliband. The write-ups in the papers of his performance have been pretty bad and last night there was a longish feature on Newsnight by Michael Crick about EdM’s position. Yet in spite of all this Labour continues to poll well and the latest PAPA…

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Introducing PAPA – the PB All Pollsters’ Average

Introducing PAPA – the PB All Pollsters’ Average

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PB All Pollsters’ Average Date CON % LAB % LD % PAPA Current 24/11/10 37.6 38.4 13.4 PAPA October 2010 31/10/10 37.6 37.2 15.2 PAPA September 2010 30/09/10 37.8 37.0 14.8 PAPA August 2010 31/08/10 39.3 36.0 15.0 PAPA July 2010 31/07/10 40.0 36.7 15.0 PAPA June 2010 30/06/10 40.2 37.2 17.2 Labour edge upwards as the LDs dive Here it is – the first PB All Pollsters’ Average (PAPA) as was trailed on a thread last week. Taking in…

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