Could the top pollster from 2007 be right again? There’s a new ICM poll of Scotland that is showing quite a different picture of opinion in the country compared with other recent surveys from other firms. The figures are as follows:- The constituency voting intentions show: Lab 39, SNP 35, Con 12, LD 10, Oth 4 The regional voting intention shows: Lab 37, SNP 34, Con 13, LD 9, Grn 4, Oth 7 The actual constituency breakdown from 2007 was…
Could the new system dilute the UKIP threat? I don’t usually pay much attention to local by-election results but this one from last night might cause some concerns in Tory ranks. A seat in Tunbridge Wells is lost following a huge surge in the UKIP vote while the Lib Dem support was not much down on what happened on general election day last year. It doesn’t take a skilled mathematician to work out that if the election had been under…
How key is this to the next general election? If you think that there’s a glut of polling from Ipsos-MORI polling at the moment you are right. For as well as the regular MORI political monitor for Reuters there were also special pre-budget questions for the Economist – details of which are now available. The most significant findings politically related to that subject that we’ve touched on a fair bit on PB – who is to blame for the cuts?…
Or can Balls build on his lead? Perhaps the most surprising finding from today’s MORI poll were the above ones on who would make “best chancellor” for the pollster found, and I think this is a first, that Balls is ahead. Certainly Labour’s man has been playing a big public role and has always seized opportunities to make news and get coverage. What a turnaround for the man whose apparent unelectability was a key issue in last autumn’s Labour leadership…
Poll/Publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 13/03/11 37 41 10 12 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/02/11 33 43 13 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 24/01/11 33 43 13 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 12/12/10 38 39 11 12 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 14/11/10 36 39 14 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 17/10/10 39 36 14 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 12/09/10 37 37 15 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 8 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 11 It’s CON 37: LAB 41: LD 10 The monthly telephone poll from Ipsos-MORI for Reuters is…
Ipsos-MORI The 32 year view from Mrs Thatcher onwards This is a chart that Ipsos-MORI produces on most months in order to put current government approval ratings figures in an historical context. It shows how the satisfied-dissatisfied numbers moved month by month in the first year after a general election. So at this stage, the chart is based on February’s polling, the coalition is doing substantially better than John Major’s 1992 government and a touch better compared with nine months…
How 6.9% of the sample was worth 21%? Last Wednesday YouGov reported that Labour were on 48% for the Welsh Assembly elections on May 5th and were possibly heading for an overall majority They might well be but ftom the initial detail that the pollster released I was uncomfortable by the heavy weighting uplift that Labour had in the poll and the sizeable down-scale of the Tory vote. Now with the availability today of the full weightings data we can…