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Month: March 2011

Does the calendar give YES a slight edge?

Does the calendar give YES a slight edge?

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The build-up to polling day Status Thursday 21 April 2011 Normal working day Friday 22 April 2011 Good Friday: Long holiday weekend Saturday 23 April 2011 Long holiday weekend Sunday 24 April 2011 East Sunday: Long holiday weekend Monday 25 April 2011 East Monday: Long holiday weekend Tuesday 26 April 2011 Normal working day: Wedding week Wednesday 27 April 2011 Normal working day: Wedding week Thursday 28 April 2011 Normal working day: Wedding week Friday 29 April 2011 Royal Wedding:…

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NO2AV/YouGov poll has YES 4 percent ahead

NO2AV/YouGov poll has YES 4 percent ahead

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Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Methodology note Angus Reid/ 03/03/11 55 45 Repercentaged by PB. Actual wording on the ballot, online, polling restricted to members of its polling panel. No turnout weighting. Politically weighted via past vote and newspaper type. YouGov/No2AV 02/03/11 52 48 Repercentaged by PB. Now the same wording as on the ballot. Polling restricted to members of its polling panel. No turnout weighting. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type. Ipsos-MORI Reuters…

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Was the LD collapse all predicted in pre-election polls?

Was the LD collapse all predicted in pre-election polls?

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How would you feel if the election outcome was a coalition between the Tories and the Lib Dems (YouGov: May 1 2010) All voters % CON voters % LD voters % I would be delighted 6 6 11 I would be dismayed 51 34 43 I wouldn’t mind 31 52 47 37 Don’t know 13 8 9 Is the amazing thing that the yellows are not doing worse? Thanks to Peter Kellner for picking up this – a finding from…

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Can Nick surprise us again?

Can Nick surprise us again?

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Jonathan’s Sunday Slot…a bit late! It has been a truly dire week for the Liberal Democrats. It became clear that the AV referendum could fail, now that No2AV is making progress in the polls. The party fell from second to sixth in the Barnsley by-election; an incredibly poor result, perhaps without precedent. More worryingly, the election also saw UKIP emerge as a plausible third party choice and apply pressure on the coalition from the right. These are dangerous times for…

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Poll: 6pc of Tory voters have switched to UKIP

Poll: 6pc of Tory voters have switched to UKIP

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How serious is the threat to the blues? New data from Angus Reid shows that 6% of those who told the pollster in a post election survey in May 2010 that the voted Tory now saying they would support UKIP in an immediate general election. What’s significant about this is that the past vote data is not based on what they now say they did at the last election but on what they told the pollster in a survey carried…

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Would Labour necessarily win a 2011 election?

Would Labour necessarily win a 2011 election?

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Could it be much tighter than it appears? On Friday, in the immediate aftermath of Barnsley, I speculated about the possibility of the Lib Dems failing to hold their nerve, the coalition falling apart, and the chances of this leading to a general election this year. I rate the possibility of it happening at no more than 25%. But what would happen in such an election. Would Labour, in line with all the polling, the local council by elections and,…

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How does Dave deal with UKIP?

How does Dave deal with UKIP?

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How big a warning shot was Barnsley? One of the most striking aspects of the Barnsley Central result was the second place for UKIP. This was probably their best ever by-election result: it’s the first time they’ve finished as high as second and was their best-ever share of the poll, though their candidate in Norwich North in 2009 won over a thousand more votes on a higher turnout. In both by-elections this parliament, they’ve held their deposit. It would be…

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Is the old LD election machine broken beyond repair?

Is the old LD election machine broken beyond repair?

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If so, how does Clegg build a new one? The Barnsley Central by-election was not a resounding success for any of the main three parties. Labour regained most of the share they lost at the general election but still polled a smaller proportion than in 2005, the Conservatives lost half their share and were beaten by UKIP, and the Lib Dems lost their deposit, more than three-quarters of their share and finished sixth. That more than a quarter of the…

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