NO2AV/YouGov poll has YES 4 percent ahead

NO2AV/YouGov poll has YES 4 percent ahead

Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Methodology note
Angus Reid/ 03/03/11 55 45 Repercentaged by PB. Actual wording on the ballot, online, polling restricted to members of its polling panel. No turnout weighting. Politically weighted via past vote and newspaper type.
YouGov/No2AV 02/03/11 52 48 Repercentaged by PB. Now the same wording as on the ballot. Polling restricted to members of its polling panel. No turnout weighting. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type.
Ipsos-MORI Reuters 20/02/11 55 45 Repercentaged by MORI. Actual wording on the ballot, phone poll, only those “certain to vote” included.
ICM/Guardian 20/02/11 51 49 Repercentaged by ICM. Actual wording on the ballot, phone poll, past voted weighted. Figures show split after turnout weighting

Now YouGov are using the wording on the ballot

It’s going to be quite a big polling night. There’s a new Populus poll expected for the Times and, of course, the regular daily poll for the Sun.

In addition the full details have appeared on the YouGov website of an AV referendum poll carried out for the NO2AV campaign where, in line with all the other pollsters, the question put to the sample was the same as will be on the ballot in May.

This compares sharply with the 14% lead for NO using YouGov’s original wording. Both polls were for the NO2AV campaign.

Note that this latest YouGov AV poll was completed on Thursday before the Angus Reid poll that was published last Friday.

Repercentaging means is that the firm is now showing a 4% lead for YES amongst decided voters. In order to facilitate proper comparison between the firms PB is repercentaging the figures to exclude the don’t knows and won’t votes in the same way that standard voting intention polls are presented.

UPDATE: Labour extend lead with Populus

Poll/Publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH
Populus/Times 06/03/11 35 41 11 13
Populus/Times 06/02/11 36 39 11 14
Populus/Times 24/10/10 37 38 15 10
Populus/Times 12/09/10 39 37 14 10
Populus/Times 23/06/10 39 33 18 10

The latest Populus telephone poll has Labour moving up two, the Tories down one with the LDs staying the same. UKIP is at 5%.

The Times reports that: “Voters’ initial warm enthusiasm for the decision of the Conservatives and Lib Dems to form a coalition is also now waning. The public are now evenly divided, with 48 per cent agreeing and 49 per cent disagreeing. Last September an overwhelming majority supported the decision to form a coalition: 68 per cent to 29 per cent. Conservative voters are divided by 51 per cent to 48 per cent, when only six months ago they endorsed the coalition 84 per cent to 16 per cent. Lib Dem voters still prefer coalition to a minority Conservative government by 61 per cent to 37 per cent.”

Surprisingly there was no AV question – odd given how close it is to polling day.

SECOND UPDATE: YouGov daily poll has 36/42/9

Mike Smithson

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