Can the oldies bring a smile to the NO campaigners’ faces?
Is the grey vote going to win it for NO?
Although we’ve been getting conflicting messages on the AV referendum there’s one big trend that’s seen in all the surveys where the actual question that’s on the ballot will be put – the older you are the least likely it is that you want change.
I’ve just extracted the split, repercentaged to show just decided voters, of the oldest age group from all the latest polls.
Normally you shouldn’t read too much into sub-samples like this on an individual poll basis – but when all the surveys point to the same picture then you can be more confident about a trend espcially when, as in in the table below, precisely the same question was put.
| Latest AV referendum polls using the question that’s on the ballot | Date | Age segment | YES % | NO % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/SkyNews | 09/03/11 | 60plus | 45 | 55 |
| ComRes/Indy on Sunday | 09/03/11 | 65plus | 36 | 64 |
| Angus Reid/ | 03/03/11 | 55plus | 40 | 60 |
| Ipsos-MORI Reuters | 20/02/11 | 65plus | 38 | 62 |
| ICM/Guardian | 20/02/11 | 65plus | 38 | 62 |
The big challenge of all of this for YES is that the older you are the more likely it is that you will vote.