Click on picture to watch Is the by election going to be deferred? The next big move in the Oldham East and Saddleworth saga is a statement this afternoon from the commons speaker, John Bercow, on what’s going to happen next, particularly the timing of the by election. The question is whether, as would be normal when a vacancy occurs, it is for the house to call for the by election. Or will Bercow rule that this should be deferred…
Welcome to Jonathan’s new Sunday Slot Sunday nights are Labour night! Over the next few weeks, I’ll be writing posts from a left wing perspective. Hopefully this will compliment our excellent right wing posters such as David Herdson. To start, we need to face facts. The left faces a significant challenge today. Since the late 1990s, we have suffered reversals. We hold power in just three out of the ten democracies below. Where the left are still in power, they…
Hope you can make the next PB gathering Thanks to Fat Steve for once again organising this. We are having an informal get-together at the historic Dirty Dicks pub opposite the main entrance to Liverpool Street station. The time and date: a week on Wednesdsay at 6.30pm There’s no need to book but it does help if those who are coming can email Steve at Londonevent@politicalbetting.com It was a great gathering in March before the election – see you there….
Is the IDS programme the next “wedge issue”? The big political news this morning is the Observer’s front page splash saying that under plans to be announced in the next few days the jobless could risk losing their benefits if they don’t do unpaid manual work. This is based on the belief that jobseekers “would benefit from experiencing the habits and routines of working life”. According to the paper the unemployed will be told to take up “mandatory work activity”…
Read the fecking judgement first Click on the panel above to download the 57 page judgement in the Woolas case. It’s a good read and those who bother should avoid contributing to the crazy debate that’s developing over the implications – much of which is based on ignorance. This is the specific law, section 106 of the Representation of the People Act 1983, that the court decided had been breached by Mr Woolas:- (1) A person who, or any director…
Can the Woolas factor be so easily sidestepped? The first proper by-election of the 2010 parliament looks set to be a cracker. All three main parties in contention but with Labour having a particular local problem, the Lib Dems well down in the polls from May and the Tories starting in third place it’s surely all to play for – especially once any number of minor candidates are thrown into the mix too. You wouldn’t think so from the betting,…
The worst analysis of the Mid-Terms came from NPR. Apparently, the electorate is the same as 2008, but a different slice turned up this time! I.e., the epochal progressive shift is intact, only the progressives failed to show. There is a kernal of truth in this that the GOP will ignore at its peril – the demographics remain against them unless they can appeal to Latinos. Aside from Rubio (who won Floridian Latinos by the same margin that he won…
Paul Waugh Twitter page In the betting it’s LAB 1/2: CON 4/1: LD 4/1 There’s lots of confusion about the current status of Woolas which has been partly clarified by Paul Waugh’s Tweet. My understanding is that all the parties had been operating on the assumption that if May’s result was voided then this would trigger off a by-election immediately. The date that was being talked about was Thursday December 2nd. This does not leave a lot of time for…