The final Reuters/Ipsos MORI marginals poll, is just out and points to a 7% LAB-CON swing which would just be enough to secure an overall majority. That could be just enough to put them into power without the need for support from other parties. More can be found here. Mike Smithson
“Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader ..” Well Badly Net Change BROWN 33% (38) 63% (57) -30 -9 CAMERON 58% (50) 36% (37) +22 +9 CLEGG 79% (77) 14% (14) +65 +2 YouGov Sunday Times Is this where “Bigotgate” is taking its toll? YouGov has now published the full data from its Sunday Times poll so we can see the detail of what many, including myself, regard as a good guide to what will happen in the election….
(Timings are based on 2005) 22:00 The 2010 BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is published. This will be the first indication of how the country has voted. Throughout the day at 130 selected polling stations NOP and MORI will have been conducted interviews with one in every ten voters as they leave. The vast majority of the locations will have been used in 2005 and a team of academic psephologists will analyse what’s coming in focusing on moves from the previous election….
This is a regular feature which will run every Sunday night up until polling day, to include the last set of figures from each pollster, as well as the current seat spreads from the betting markets, and also international updates. The pollsters Last poll from each pollster Con LD Lab Oth Lead YouGov 2 May 34 29 28 9 Con 5 ICM 2 May 33 28 28 11 Con 5 BPIX 1 May 34 30 27 9 Con 4 ComRes…
YouGov – the Sun May 2 May 1 CONSERVATIVES 34% 35% LIB DEMS 29% 28% LABOUR 28% 27% UPDATE – ICM ICM – Guardian May 2 Apr 30 CONSERVATIVES 33% 36% LIB DEMS 28% 27% LABOUR 28% 29% Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk The UK election game is available here – entries close 7am BST Thursday
The chart, from Bestbetting, shows the changing prices on the exchanges, expressed as an implied percentage, to developments over the past 24 hours. As can be seen the markets did what markets almost always do – they over-reacted. Now the gap between the Tory majority and a hung parliament has moved to the 53-47 range as we wait for more polling. I just wonder whether we’ll get a “bank holiday” poll with a very different picture. It happened at precisely…
OnePoll – The People May 1 Apr 24 CONSERVATIVES 30% 32% LIB DEMS 32% 32% LABOUR 21% 23% Which’ll be closest: phone polling or on-line? Above is the latest from new pollster, OnePoll, for today’s People – the paper that used to commission YouGov until the exclusive deal by that firm with News International in February. We don’t know much about OnePoll but this is their fourth campaign survey for the paper which I think ought to be recorded. Like…
Election Winning leader Alma mater 1945 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1950 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1951 Winston Churchill Non graduate 1955 Anthony Eden University of Oxford 1959 Harold Macmillan University of Oxford 1964 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1966 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1970 Edward Heath University of Oxford 1974 Feb Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1974 Oct Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1979 Margaret Thatcher University of Oxford 1983 Margaret Thatcher University of Oxford 1987 Margaret…