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Could he be out of Number 10 today? So while the moves continue on the formation of the next government the three leaders had to spend a few minutes in each other’s company at today VE celebration. How pointed that the BBC shot, featured above had Mr, Brown almost completely blanked out of the picture. There are lots of betting markets on what’s going to happen. Newcomer political betting exchange, Smarkets, has the following:- Number of LD cabinet ministers on…

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Could last night’s phone call be crucial? A big development in the last few minutes is a report on the BBC of a conversation between Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg last night in which the prime minister’s approach was described as a diatribe and hardly conducive to possible future working. The source was a “prominent Lib Dem” who also said that the Clegg-Cameron talks had been convivial. It might be on such personal relationship issues that the future government might…

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Can Cameron and Clegg conclude coalition concords? More than a day after the polls closed and still we’re barely any nearer knowing who will form the government as a result of yesterday’s election. The negotiations between the parties aren’t just a numbers game – complex enough though that is – they’re also a battle for legitimacy in the public mind. A Populus poll for The Times sheds a little light on that, with the three options put (Tory minority government,…

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It’s humble pie time for me A couple of days ago I raised the issue of the don’t know adjustments used by Populus and ICM and implied that this might be having a distorting effect on their final polls. In both cases it was their adjustments for the don’t knows which made them more right – a key factor that enabled them to be in first and second position in the polling accuracy league table. They deserve to be congratulated….

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You can check out Marf’s work here.

BBC And how will the true-blues view it? What an amazing day and I wonder whether Cameron has done enough to bring in Clegg’s party in some form or another. I also wonder whether Cameron is opening himself up to attack from those within his own party by apparently going so far. Mike Smithson

With talk of dissent within parts of the Tory party over the conduct of their campaign it’s clear that none of the three have survived the election unscathed. There’s almost certainly a disconnect between Clegg’s instincts and many senior figures within his party and Labour’s discomfort with Mr. Brown has erupted on many occasions. Who is under the most pressure and how is that going to impact on the current delicate manoeuvres? Mike Smithson

Bunnco, who has very close links with the Tory party hierarchy, posted this earlier setting out his understanding of what the Cameron team will do? “1 Clegg said that he’s work with the party with the largest mandate. In this case it’s the Tories in terms of seats and votes, where Cameron is 2m votes ahead. 2 But Clegg’s going to want to extract a price in the form of ‘electoral reform’. He certainly doesn’t have the mandate he was…

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