Has Bunnco got this one right on the Tories?

Has Bunnco got this one right on the Tories?

Bunnco, who has very close links with the Tory party hierarchy, posted this earlier setting out his understanding of what the Cameron team will do?

“1 Clegg said that he’s work with the party with the largest mandate. In this case it’s the Tories in terms of seats and votes, where Cameron is 2m votes ahead.
2 But Clegg’s going to want to extract a price in the form of ‘electoral reform’. He certainly doesn’t have the mandate he was expecting.
3 But he’s not in the strong situation he expected to find himself in. After all, he’s gone backwards too. So his ability to arm-twist is not as great as you’d think.
4 And propping-up the ‘loser’ would be suicidal if another election is called.

So, this is what’s going to happen.

1 Cameron and Clegg will talk first based on 1. above.
2 Clegg will demand electoral reform as his price.
3 Cameron will listen carefully and respond offering some sort of AV/STV/PR voting system for an elected House of Lords whilst reformning the boundaries in the Commons so that they are made of equal size so that every vote carries equal weight.
4 That’s the best he’s going to get for the moment and he’s bound to accept it.

For if there’s another election within the year, he cannot afford to be seen to be the wrecker or slimey-Mandleson’s poodle. Mandleson has really over-played his hand on the TV this morning.

So it’s voting equalisation/boundary changes for the Commons and Voting reform for the Lords. If he turns his nose up at this, he’ll be accused of putting narrow party advantage before the needs of the country and pay the price accordingly.”

Mike Smithson

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