Bunnco, who has very close links with the Tory party hierarchy, posted this earlier setting out his understanding of what the Cameron team will do?
“1 Clegg said that heâ€™s work with the party with the largest mandate. In this case itâ€™s the Tories in terms of seats and votes, where Cameron is 2m votes ahead.
2 But Cleggâ€™s going to want to extract a price in the form of â€˜electoral reformâ€™. He certainly doesnâ€™t have the mandate he was expecting.
3 But heâ€™s not in the strong situation he expected to find himself in. After all, heâ€™s gone backwards too. So his ability to arm-twist is not as great as youâ€™d think.
4 And propping-up the â€˜loserâ€™ would be suicidal if another election is called.
So, this is whatâ€™s going to happen.
1 Cameron and Clegg will talk first based on 1. above.
2 Clegg will demand electoral reform as his price.
3 Cameron will listen carefully and respond offering some sort of AV/STV/PR voting system for an elected House of Lords whilst reformning the boundaries in the Commons so that they are made of equal size so that every vote carries equal weight.
4 Thatâ€™s the best heâ€™s going to get for the moment and heâ€™s bound to accept it.
For if thereâ€™s another election within the year, he cannot afford to be seen to be the wrecker or slimey-Mandlesonâ€™s poodle. Mandleson has really over-played his hand on the TV this morning.
So itâ€™s voting equalisation/boundary changes for the Commons and Voting reform for the Lords. If he turns his nose up at this, heâ€™ll be accused of putting narrow party advantage before the needs of the country and pay the price accordingly.”