Browsed by
Month: April 2010

Populus has Tories one point ahead

Populus has Tories one point ahead

Comments 0 Comment

Populus/The Times Apr 20 Apr 13 CONSERVATIVES 32% 36% LIB DEMS 31% 21% LABOUR 28% 33% Fieldwork was carried out yesterday evening and this morning, and confirms the continuing Lib Dem bounce, with Clegg’s party up 10 points, Labour down five, and the Conservatives down four at 32. Peter Riddell comments in The Times: “The Lib Dem rise has been particularly fuelled by younger voters since last Thursday’s party leaders’ debate, while there are indications that the debate may boost…

Read More Read More

What if Clegg can persuade us that he’s winning?

What if Clegg can persuade us that he’s winning?

Comments 0 Comment

The conditional voting intention finding from YouGov “How would you vote if you thought the Liberal Democrats had a significant chance of winning..?” (YouGov – April 19 2010) Apr 19 LIB DEMS 49% CONSERVATIVES 25% LABOUR 19% Meanwhile – the first of tonight’s polls – from PB/Angus Reid Angus Reid/Politicalbetting Apr 20 Apr 19 CONSERVATIVES 32% 32% LIB DEMS 33% 32% LABOUR 23% 24% Mike Smithson

How many Lib Dems will be sitting here next month?

How many Lib Dems will be sitting here next month?

Comments 0 Comment

Will cabinet seats be the price of a deal? The new political betting exchange Political Smarkets has put up an intriguing new bet – how many Lib Dems will be full Cabinet ministers on June 1st. There are four options, none, one, two and three or more. The firm prices its bets as percentages which after you have got used to it looks sensible – after all many punters tend to rate chances in this way before betting. The none…

Read More Read More

Is it time to be reconsidering turnout?

Is it time to be reconsidering turnout?

Comments 0 Comment

Will levels be much higher than last time? My view on turnout has, for some time, been that it’s going to see quite an uplift from the 61% of 2005. At the last two elections the outcome was always a foregone conclusion and there was never any sense that change might come about. A fortnight tomorrow things will be different. A change is a real possibility and even at this late stage it’s not possible to predict the outcome. Voters,…

Read More Read More

Is a myth being created about the impact of the debate?

Is a myth being created about the impact of the debate?

Comments 0 Comment

Did the move to the Lib Dems start much earlier? It is almost becoming a short-hand to describe this election. The two party fight became a three-sided contest at 10pm on Thursday April 15th when the first polling reaction to the first leaders’ debate had Nick Clegg winning by a mile. No doubt this is how the dramatic Election of 2010 will go down in political history – but is it actually true? Didn’t the move to the yellow team…

Read More Read More

PB/Angus Reid has the Lib Dems up 10

PB/Angus Reid has the Lib Dems up 10

Comments 0 Comment

Angus Reid/Politicalbetting Apr 19 Apr 12 CONSERVATIVES 32% 38% LIB DEMS 32% 22% LABOUR 24% 28% And Labour fall 8 points behind. Fieldwork for the first PB/Angus Reid voting intention poll since the Thursday debates was completed this afternoon and shows sharp drops on last week for Labour and the Tories and a double digit increase in the Lib Dem share. This is the first poll today that has data from today and underlines the fact that the move to…

Read More Read More

Is the Lib Dem surge being sustained?

Is the Lib Dem surge being sustained?

Comments 0 Comment

ICM Guardian Apr 18 Apr 15 CONSERVATIVES 33% 34% LIB DEMS 30% 28% LABOUR 28% 29% And is Labour losing more to Clegg than the Tories? So here we are – another poll confirming the big trend. The Lib Dem surge has survived the weekend and is showing no sign of abating. It really is beginning to look as that there has been a step-change in opinion and this is taken place barely two and a half weeks before election…

Read More Read More