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Month: April 2010

The Grey Marginals

The Grey Marginals

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Research by Dr Scott Davidson, De Montfort University Although the ageing of the UK population is well documented, less well understood are the implications for a first past the post electoral system such as ours, with the importance of marginal seats in campaigning. My research suggests that Labour and the Liberal Democrats are defending 57 “grey marginals” against the apparent rise in vote share for the Conservatives since 2005. A note on methods (more details in the full report). I…

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Today’s Marf cartoon and a warning about the UNS

Today’s Marf cartoon and a warning about the UNS

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Let’s stop the clap-trap about the uniform national swing So much tosh will be talked about the UNS (Uniform National Swing) in the coming weeks that I thought that we ought to feature a reminder of how successful it’s been in the past four election in predicting eventual seat totals from the national vote share numbers. Thanks to Andy Cooke on the previous thread for providing this. In 1992, Labour ourtperformed the UNS (which was about 2%) by 1-2% in…

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Labour up one Tories down one in the daily poll

Labour up one Tories down one in the daily poll

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YG daily poll: The Sun Apr 6 Apr 5 CONSERVATIVES 40% 41% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 17% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 6.5% So just MOE changes on the first day of the campaign The YouGov daily poll of the campaign, for tomorrow’s Sun is now it and has only margin of error changes on last night. But Labour will be pleased to to have close the gap if only by a bit and the Tories…

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The approval rating gap gets wider

The approval rating gap gets wider

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Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader ..” Well Badly Net Change BROWN 33% (33) 61% (61) -28 0 CAMERON 53% (49) 36% (39) +17 +7 CLEGG 54% (47) 23% (27) +31 +11 YouGov Sunday Times: FW Apr 3 (Mar 19) Nick and Dave advance while Gord stands still The latest leader approval ratings numbers from YouGov are just out and show that Cameron and Clegg continue to improve while Gordon Brown remains where he was a fortnight ago.

Is the forecourt where it will be decided?

Is the forecourt where it will be decided?

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What’s the £5.50 gallon going to do to “Motorway Man”? A combination of budgets measures and the declining pound has forced the price of petrol up and it now stands at just on £1.20 a litre or £5.50 a gallon equalling the highest level ever. Historically there’s been a link between the price of petrol and Labour’s position in the polls. Look at the latest version of this chart that we’ve featured before. Whatgas Given that one of the key…

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Will it be older voters that finally do for Mr. Brown?

Will it be older voters that finally do for Mr. Brown?

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Message from Robert: I will be doing some minor site maintenance today ahead of the expected announcement this afternoon. Hopefully there won’t be any downtime. But, if there is, you know who to blame. Brand Democracy/YG Mar 19 CON LAB LD OTH 45-54 year olds 32% 38% 17% 13% 55-64 year old 39% 27% 19% 15% All 55 and over 46% 24% 16% 14% All 65 and over 49% 23% 15% 13% All 18+ 37% 31% 19% 13% The over…

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