..PB.s Marf gives her take Thanks Marf – that’s great and really sets the scene. I’m off to Manchester tomorrow to be part of the panel of “experts” on the ITV post-debate debate chaired by Jonathan Dimbleby. It’s quite exciting and I feel honoured to be taking part. It starts at 10.30pm. Because of the massive security restrictions I doubt if I’ll be able to post – but PB will be left in the capable hands of the site’s team…
ComRes: ITV News/Independent Apr 13 Apr 12 CONSERVATIVES 35% 36% LABOUR 29% 31% LIB DEMS 21% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4.5% 4% The latest ComRes tracker, in which a fresh sample of 500 is interviewed each day and the total added to the previous day’s responses, is out and has Labour down in the 20s with the Tories at 35%. The survey, for ITV News and the Independent, covers yesterday and Monday and so took place before…
YouGov Daily Poll Apr 14 Apr 13 CONSERVATIVES 41% 39% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 18% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6% 5.5% Is this down to the manifesto coverage? My reaction to last night’s polling news was that there might have been a boost in Labour’s position because quite of a lot of the fieldwork had taken place just after the party had received a coverage boost following its manifesto launch. Well it does seem from tonight’s…
Should this new range of markets be voided? Thanks to Aaron a couple of days or go for pointing up the wording that Betfair is using to define majority in a new range of markets that have just been put up. The wording used is this:- “What will be the Conservative Party’s overall majority of parliamentary seats as a result of the next UK general election? This market refers to how many seats in excess of 325 the Conservative Party…
What are his chances in the Battle for Buckingham This is the “Flipper Dolphin” who is seeking to tail John Bercow wherever he travels during the campaign in his Buckingham constituency to highlight the speaker’s record on expenses. The purpose is to remind voters that their outgoing MP is what was became known as “a flipper” during the expenses scandal. Bercow is trying to fight back by claiming that he has one of the best records in the house. This…
Can we make sense of the differing polls? So a night of sharply contrasting polling and as PB threads have shown people seem to opt for the numbers that most fit with their desired outcome That’s inevitable. What we are seeing are the products of different methodologies and I’ve have points to pick with all of them. My problem with the latest batch is that a large part of the fieldwork period covered Monday when the news was dominated by…
ComRes: ITV News/Independent Apr 12 Apr 11 CONSERVATIVES 36% 37% LABOUR 31% 30% LIB DEMS 19% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4% 5% There’s a new ComRes poll for ITV New/Independent that sees just one point movements in all the parties but for the Tories the gap closes to an uncomfortable 5 points. Breaking down the voting intention figures by geography, ComRes found that in the South East the two main parties are fairly close with Conservatives on…
Populus – Times Apr 12 Apr 7 CONSERVATIVES 36% 39% LABOUR 33% 32% LIB DEMS 21% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 5% A Populus poll for tomorrow’s Times has the Tory lead over Labour cut to just 3%, which would certainly be hung parliament territory if repeated at the election and could well see Labour as the largest party. Other figures of note in the article are that Lib Dem supporters would prefer a deal with Labour over…