Could this affect Commons seats projections? Most people with an interest in politics and election outcomes are familiar with the term – Uniform National Swing but there is often a lot of confusion on how the numbers are made up? For a key element is that the swing is not applied proportionately in each seat – but according to the number in percentage points change that, say, a new poll represents. So based on the latest 33% poll share the…
What will the next seventeen days bring? Our chart shows the dramatic movement in best betting prices on a Tory majority over the past extraordinary week – a period when the views of the election outcome from punters and pundits alike changed so dramatically. As someone suggested on an overnight thread – the Lib Dems have gone viral and we’ve no idea where this will end. Certainly the prospects for the Tory majority look a lot thinner this morning. For…
Please continue tonight’s discussions here. Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk
YouGov daily poll – Sun Apr 18 Apr 17 LIB DEMS 33% 29% CONSERVATIVES 32% 33% LABOUR 26% 30% Labour take a big hit as the yellow surge continues With all the speculation that the move to the yellows would fizzle out quickly the latest YouGov daily poll continues the good news for Clegg and his team The Lib Dems have now edged about the Tories while at the same time there’s been a sharp drop in the Labour vote…
This is a regular feature which will run every Sunday night up until polling day, to include the last set of figures from each pollster, as well as the current seat spreads from the betting markets, and also international updates. The pollsters Last poll from each pollster Con Lab LD Oth Lead YouGov 17 Apr 33 30 29 8 Con 3 BPIX 17 Apr 31 28 32 9 LD 1 ComRes 17 Apr 31 27 29 13 Con 2 ICM…
Should we follow the old American “rule” There’s an old adage about US presidential elections which has been magnified since TV debates started in 1960 – the tallest contender generally ends up winning the election I wonder whether the affect could be happening here. Did Clegg’s stature give him an edge last Thursday night and might that be a good pointer to May 6th? Looking forward to the next debate Thursday PaddyPower has a tricast market – you forecast the…
Should the Tories play the immigration card? With the reverberations of the post-debate opinion polls dominating the political coverage there’s a lot of focus this morning on how Labour and the Tories deal with the new challenge. To me Andrew Rawnsley is on the right lines in the Observer. He writes: “Some Labour strategists have sounded happy to join the praise for his performance in the first bout. One of Gordon Brown’s senior aides cheerfully remarked to me on Friday…
YouGov daily poll Apr 17 Apr 16 CONSERVATIVES 33% 33% LABOUR 30% 28% LIB DEMS 29% 30%  Labour back in second but just 4% between the Big Three Tonight’s YouGov poll has the Lib Dems dropping back behind Labour but their 29% share is still an extremely strong showing and reconfirms the trend from all pollsters since the debate on Thursday. That these figures would produce a hung parliament is unarguable. Quite what the shape of that parliament would be…