The more it seems likely the less chance of it happening Over lunch today with three guys who were closely involved with my campaign at the 1992 general election – the only time I was ever a parliamentary candidate – we looked back to that remarkable campaign and the last really surprising national result. The media narrative in the closing days was that the Tory government which had come to power thirteen years earlier was drawing to a close and…
Was Brown right to take part in this interview? If the objective of the Piers Morgan interview has been to dominate the political news and block everybody else out of the agenda then Gordon Brown’s now infamous session, due to be broadcast on Sunday, has certainly done that. And given that getting blanket coverage on the telly, as we see during the conference season, leads to short-term poll boosts then we should expect Labour increases in the coming few days….
How would his selection go down with the locals? There’s a head of steam building up over the plans by Harriet Harman’s husband, Jack Dromey, to try to become Labour candidate in what has been the super-safe seat of Birmingham Erdington. Martin Kettle in the Guardian put it like this: “Not all appointments of family members are necessarily bad ones. But they pretty much all look bad. And they therefore bring dishonour not just upon the individuals involved, but upon…
Does it say anything about the election timing? Chris A had an interesting point on the previous thread:- A year ago tomorrow the date for the 2009 budget was announced. It was the last day before the half term recess and gave over two months notice of the date. This year there has been no announcement and Parliament is now in recess and not back for almost two weeks. Maybe there isn’t going to be a budget this year –…
CON 40% (33) LAB 28% (43) LD 15% (17) Are the blues are doing better where it matters? Today’s exclusive PB/Angus Reid poll was a standard national opinion survey making up its sample from 2,002 participants from constituencies all over Britain. It was not a specific marginals poll. But because of the size of the sample it has been possible to isolate that section of those surveyed who live in the main LAB>CON marginals. So the figures above are based…
CON 38% (40) LAB 25% (24) LD 20% (19) And will “others” will be squeezed by polling day? There’s a new exclusive PB/Angus Reid poll just out where the fieldwork started on Tuesday and finished only last night. The shares are above and show the Tories down a touch with Labour at its highest ever recorded level with the online pollster. This is the first full national survey to have been carried out since the three Labour MPs and a…
Something else to throw Brown Central off-stride? Another day and another book looking at what goes on within Gordon Brown’s Number 10 written by someone who was close to the heart of the party and government. The latest is by Lance Price, deputy to Tony Blair’s communications director Alastair Campbell and the first part of its serialisation starts today in the Independent. One extract goes: “…When he believes a story is running out of control or that – the worst…
The 2005 final polls: C33% L38% LD23% – MORI C33% L38% LD22% – HARRIS C32% L37% LD25% – YouGov C32% L38% LD22% – ICM C32% L38% LD21% – Populus C33% L36% LD23% – NOP C33% L37% LD21% – BPIX C31% L39% LD23% – COMRES The 2005 result: C33.2% L36.2% LD22.7% Would this factor in likely Labour polling over-statement? In the past week while we’ve been putting the focus on what lead would produce a majority couple of PBers have emailed…