Could Brown hang on even if he loses his majority? Scenario: 3pm on May 7th. The last few constituencies are declaring but the result has been known for some hours. For the first time in 36 years, no party has won an overall majority. It’s always been quite a strong possibility: if Labour lose more than about a couple of dozen seats they lose their majority but the Tories need to gain well over a hundred to win outright. That’s…
…and 60% say Brown should share responsibility More information has just been published from the weekend ComRes poll and it doesn’t make comfortable reading for either Blair and his successor. A majority believes that Gordon Brown should share the blame while almost almost four in 10 people believe that Blair should face a war crimes trial over the 2003 invasion. The findings are a setback for Brown, who will give evidence to the Chilcot inquiry into the war in the…
CON SPREAD RANGES —– Sporting Index 334 – 339 ExtraBet 342 – 350 Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES —- Sporting Index 222 – 227 ExtraBet 211 – 220 Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES —- Sporting Index 54 – 57 ExtraBet 53 – 54 Betfair Line market There’ve been some sharp moves on the betting markets in the wake of the latest polling. Our PB Index, which seeks to extrapolate a result based on betting prices, has the projected…
Is this a case of political cross-dressing? Thanks to those on the previous thread who pointed this out but the Lib Dems have got themselves a new livery for the general election – and there’s a heavy tinge of blue about it. Given that their main election challenge will be in trying to hold on to many of their seats in the face strong challenges from the Tories it’s hard to conclude that this is not deliberate. For incumbent Lib…
And has it missed the main story from its poll? Let there be no doubt – the latest poll from ComRes for the Independent showing that the Tory lead is down to just 7% is bad news for Cameron and his team – particularly as it follows a series of such poll findings. So why the devil has the paper ignored the main story from the poll it spent good money on and splashed a finding that does not even…
2200 – UPDATED following the lifting of the embargo CON 38% (38) LAB 31% (29) LD 19% (19) At 10pm the embargo on tonight’s ComRes poll for the Independent will be lifted and I’ll be able to fill in the gaps on the number panels above. But the paper’s Andrew Grice has already blogged that the margin is seven points – adding to a terrible series of polls for Cameron’s Tories. Since Friday night we’ve three polls from the YouGov…
Ipsos-Mori This has just come out from Ipsos-MORI – a polling question that I quite like and have featured before. The last time this was put was in July 2008 which was just about the biggest low for Brown when all the talk was of Miliband (D) launching a coup to oust him. The poll took place just after Labour lost Glasgow East. You can play about with the numbers as you wish – and no doubt people will draw…
On revised boundaries? Not possible James Lyons in the News of the World over the weekend suggested that Cameron’s team had plans to have a second general election in 2010 if, as some polls are indicating, he doesn’t have a workable majority. He also said that before the second election measures would be taken to change the boundaries so it would be fought on a “fairer basis”. Lyons wrote: “Tories… are secretly drawing up plans to ask the country to…