How far down the list before a Tory gain?
What’s the best bet on this new market?
Ladbrokes, which is now offering prices on every seat in Britain, has now introduced a new market which will both get us talking and, no doubt, parting with our money.
The concept is similar to one the firm developed for the 2008 White House race – you’ve got to go down the list and decide which will be the first to be a Conservative gain. I’m completely intrigued by it for the Ladbrokes political specialist, Shadsy, has identified a complex and varied set of seats for us to consider. This is not simply about swing.
As an aid can I highlight a superb article on PB2 by AntiFrank on which Tory targets are the best bet.
He’s produced two comprehensive spreadsheets to be viewed on Google documents which link the betting prices to the swings required. He presents this in two ways – first by the size of swing required and the second by betting odds.
There’s another document due out from the Electoral Commission by the end of the month which could be very useful. This lists every constituency and shows the changes in the number of voters on the electoral register.
One seat which is likely to show a big increase is Morley & Outwood which is on Shady’s list. Could having thousands of new voters impact on the chances of Mr. Balls being returned?
How far down this list will you have to go before finding a seat the Conservatives win at the General Election?
Barking 20/1
Hemsworth 16/1
Birmingham Hall Green 14/1
Cambridge 14/1
Scunthorpe 14/1
St Ives 14/1
Darlington 14/1
Ashfield 14/1
Wallasey 14/1
Sunderland Central 12/1
Birmingham Erdington 12/1
Norwich South 10/1
Hampstead & Kilburn 12/1
Brighton Pavilion 16/1
Morley & Outwood 16/1
Eastleigh 20/1
Edinburgh South West 20/1
Dagenham & Rainham 20/1
Watford 25/1
Richmond Park 25/1
Luton South 25/1
Torbay 25/1
Broxtowe 25/1
Redditch 33/1
Croydon Central 33/1
None of the above 33/1
Finally an announcement: PB has reached an agreement with Ladbrokes to sponsor our election coverage right up to the general election. This will provide a significant contribution to our costs but it will not impact on the editorial stance of PB. Ladbrokes markets will be highlighted when, like this one, they are interesting and news-worthy.