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Month: January 2010

Was Steve Richards being misleading?

Was Steve Richards being misleading?

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So what did the leading pollsters REALLY say? Along with OGH (Mike Smithson) and one or two other PB’ers, I attended the excellent polling conference held at the sumptuous British Academy on Pall Mall last week. Nearly all of the “big hitters” from UK opinion polling were there – names such as John Curtice, Peter Kellner, and Andrew Cooper who should hopefully be familiar to most readers of this site. Subjects included past vote weighting, telephone and internet polls, and…

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Has ICM adopted PB’s turnout weighting plan?

Has ICM adopted PB’s turnout weighting plan?

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Is this putting the squeeze on the “others”? Well done to Anthony Wells as UKPollingReport for spotting this but ICM seem to have introduced a significant methodology change in this week’s Guardian poll which looks as though it will reduce the shares it reports for UKIP/BNP/GRN. For the firm has introduced a change that I’ve been pressing for since 2007 – that greater weight be given when assessing likelihood to vote to those respondents who have a record of voting….

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Why we need more polls of the marginals

Why we need more polls of the marginals

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Why survey the 5/6ths that don’t matter? As we look forward to the coming battle why is it that we have our fixation with national polls when what really matters is the state of opinion in the 100 seats that will determine the outcome? Both big parties, though they won’t admit it, are no longer pumping extra resource into seats held by Labour where the 2005 majority is less than 4%. It’s the seats above that which are key and…

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Is this the day Gord can smile again?

Is this the day Gord can smile again?

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What will the recession end do to the campaign? Unless everybody has got this wildly wrong official figures out this morning will show that Britain’s economy grew in the final quarter of 2009, thus marking the end of the recession that has been going on for eighteen months. It’s a massive day for Labour and its leader Mr. Brown who believe that this will underline their argument that their approach to dealing with the economic crisis has been right and…

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Tory ICM lead moves up to 11

Tory ICM lead moves up to 11

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CON 40 % (40) LAB 29 % (30) LD 21 %(18) And Clegg’s Lib Dems go up 3 to 21 The Guardian’s ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories constant with Labour down a point and the Lib Dems up three. The changes are against the last published survey from the pollster just over a week ago and come after a period of sustained pressure from Labour on the Tory marriage plans. On that specific issue…

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Could a February election really be on the cards?

Could a February election really be on the cards?

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What’s going on at Number 10? There’s been lots of activity in the past hour following tweets about cabinet ministers arriving in Downing Street. The rumour mill is working ferociously and the idea that Brown might be about to call an election on the back of tomorrow’s “End of Recession” announcement is being floated. Can we taken it seriously? Who knows? It would certainly deal with Brown’s Chilcott problem. The last February general election was in 1974 when Heath’s Tory…

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Is Ainsworth really privy to the election date thinking?

Is Ainsworth really privy to the election date thinking?

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Hasn’t this become like October 2007? In all the speculation over May 6th really being the day let’s not forgot the total Horlicks that Labour/Brown made over the election that never was in October/November 2007. Then, according to the party’s general secretary at the time, Peter Watts, getting on for £1.2m of Labour precious resources had already been spent. A million and a half mail packs had been printed and stuffed and were ready to be sent to key voters…

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Are the debates looking less likely?

Are the debates looking less likely?

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Could they fall down in a row over studio audience? Interesting piece by David Wooding in the News of the World about rows between the parties over the formats for the planned leaders’ debates. The big issue is about the audiences – how they should be made up and whether they should be involved in the questioning. Apparently both Cameron and Brown don’t want direct questions from the floor for fear of being ambushed. But it’s who is in the…

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