Could April 8th be the day?

The veteran FT political columnist, Sue Cameron, has what could be a shrewd point this morning on the election date. She writes:-

“Tory leader David Cameron talks of March 25 as polling day, which would save Labour having an austerity Budget. Others suggest May 6 to coincide with the local elections. Labour, they say, cannot afford to fund two elections and its core vote will only turn out once. I hear the shrewd money is on April 8..”

Sue Cameron, it should be noted, goes on to make the point of May 6th meaning that general election would take place on the same day as some local elections which could offer benefits.

A problem with March 25, of course, is that the clocks have not been switched to BST with the campaign and election taking place when the evenings get dark early. The following weekend is Easter with April 8th being the first Thursday afterwards.

Maybe Mr. Brown would calculate that more Tory supporters are likely to be away at that time than Labour ones and that could make a vital difference in key marginals.

The Labour leader might be encouraged as well by the precdent of John Major in 1992 when the election was held on April 9th.

Surprisingly the betting on an April date offers some pretty tasty prices. Both PaddyPower and Ladbrokes have it at 16/1. On Betfair all the good offerings on April have been snapped up overnight.

If you can get 16/1 it’s worth a punt.

Hat-Tip to poster “Me” on the previous thread.

UPDATE I am reminded that Bunnco had an excellent analysis on Politicalbetting Channel2 in August on why April 8th is a real possibility.

Mike Smithson