What should your choice be on the new Ladbrokes market?

We’re getting closer to the day and the bookmakers are getting more ingenious in finding news ways for us to part with out money. That’s thow they make their living and we all love speculating.

The new Ladbrokes market is on how many full members of the cabinet will lose their seats at the election? A problem is that it’s based on those who are full cabinet ministers at the time of the election – not at the moment.

So you could spend hours working out which might be vulnerable and then find that Gord has a pre-election night of the long knives and all your projections count for nothing.

A better market would be one those in the cabinet as of, say, today. At least you would know the runners.

The prices are: 6/4 – None; 5/1 One; 7/1 Two; 8/1 Three; 8/1 Four; 2/1 Five or more.

So let’s go through the list using the Rallings and Thrasher “official” notional 2005 results for the seats where they will be standing.

The Safe Group

Yvette Cooper – NORMANTON, PONTEFRACT & CASTLEFORD LAB MAJ 48.73%

Gordon Brown – KIRKCALDY & COWDENBEATH LAB MAJ 43.6%

Harriet Harman – CAMBERWELL & PECKHAM LAB MAJ 42.83%

David Miliband – SOUTH SHIELDS LAB MAJ 41.61%

Andy Burnham – LEIGH LAB MAJ 38.73%

Bob Ainsworth – COVENTRY NORTH EAST LAB 38.08%

Hilary Benn – LEEDS CENTRAL LAB MAJ 37.98%

Peter Hain – NEATH LAB MAJ 35.49%

Douglas Alexander – PAISLEY & RENFREWSHIRE SOUTHLAB 34.95%

Alan Johnson – HULL WEST & HESSLE LAB MAJ 34.06%

Ed Miliband – DONCASTER NORTH LAB MAJ 31.85%

Shaun Woodward – ST HELENS SOUTH LAB MAJ 26.76%

The “at-risk group”

Note here that the notional 2005 majority in the brackets is that from UKPolling Report.

John Denham – SOUTHAMPTON ITCHEN LAB MAJ 21% (20.9%)

Ed Balls – MORLEY & OUTWOOD LAB MAJ 20.95% (24.6%)

Tessa Jowell – DULWICH & WEST NORWOOD LAB MAJ 19.75% (21.7)

Jack Straw – BLACKBURN LAB MAJ 19.45% (19.2)

Ben Bradshaw – EXETER LAB MAJ 17.27% (18.7%)

Liam Byrne – BIRMINGHAM HODGE HILL LAB MAJ 17.05% (25.2)

Alistair Darling – EDINBURGH SOUTH WEST LAB MAJ 16.49% (16.5%)

Jim Murphy – RENFREWSHIRE EAST LAB MAJ 14.04%

Given the way the polls are I find it hard to make a choice. I can see Bradshaw and Denham being in trouble and if things are bad for Labour then Ed Balls might be looking for another career. Byrne would seem to be safe and the high-profile Jack Straw looks OK. Darling might just be vulnerable as could Murphy.

Four losing their seats at 8/1 might be worth a flutter.

Mike Smithson