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Month: October 2009

Greek Election Night Special

Greek Election Night Special

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Exit Karamanlis, Enter Papandreou? Ta Nea Exit poll: PASOK 42.5 ND 36.4 KKE 7.9 LAOS 5.3 SYRIZA 3.7 No opinion polls may be published during the last two weeks of the campaign, but unless all the earlier polling was extremely inaccurate, then the New Democracy government led by Kostas Karamanlis, beset by economic crises, riots, and a wafer-thin parliamentary majority, looks set to go down to defeat. The opposition socialist PASOK, led by George Papandreou, his father a PM in…

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Is the pressure getting to Cameron?

Is the pressure getting to Cameron?

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This was a screen shot I took of the Cameron interview with Andrew Marr and shows someone who was under some pressure. He didn’t seem to be his normal self. The questioning was tough – but then he is hoping to be prime minister in a few months time. I thought it was one of his less good performances. Mike Smithson

Will Cameron’s “say nothing” gamble succeed?

Will Cameron’s “say nothing” gamble succeed?

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Is Blair’s being “all things to all people” the right approach? So we are nearly there – the final party conference before the general election – and all the pressure is on Cameron and his Tory team to spell out what a Conservative government would do. But is setting out in detail the party’s plans the wrong approach for it just provides ammunition for his opponents to pick at and then throw back at him? Thus far being evasive has…

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Labour move up 5 pts with ComRes

Labour move up 5 pts with ComRes

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CON 40%(+2) LAB 28%(+5) LD 19%(-4) And the Tories move back to the 40s These changes, once again, seem to fit with the general theory of conference period polling that the party that has been last “on” gets a boost and the longer it is since your conference then your share will decline. The poll is for the Independent on Sunday tomorrow and the fieldwork took place between the 30th September and 1st October 2009 – so Thursday and Friday….

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It’s a Yes – and a big one

It’s a Yes – and a big one

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What does this mean for the Tories? At the second time of asking, the Irish electorate appear to have given their assent to the Lisbon Treaty. Being parochial for a moment, where does this leave people and parties in the UK? The Conservatives are likely to be most affected, partly because Europe plays bigger in the Tory Party than in the others and partly because the party’s position has a large amount of uncertainty contained within it if the Treaty…

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So will Ireland vote Yes this time?

So will Ireland vote Yes this time?

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***This thread for Irish Election only*** ***Click here for UK polling thread*** Irish Times Live results thread – how accurate will the Fine Gael exit poll be? Counting began at 9am in the 43 constituencies, with early numbers from the tallymen expected within the first two hours – these have been very accurate in previous Irish general elections and in the Lisbon referendum last June. We should have a very clear idea of how Ireland has voted by lunchtime if…

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Will the towns of England seal Brown’s fate?

Will the towns of England seal Brown’s fate?

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Out at last – the PoliticsHome Marginals MegaPoll We’ve now got the latest PolticsHome marginals poll which covers 238 constituencies with a sample of 33,610 voters. Apart from the scale what makes this different is that there is a two-stage voting intention question to try to tease out the potential for tactical voting. The 2008 version was based on fieldwork at the end of July of that year when Labour was at it absolute lowest so today’s findings suggest that…

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Have the Irish fired the starting gun in the EU Presidency race?

Have the Irish fired the starting gun in the EU Presidency race?

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Can Tony live up to his 6/4 favourite status? Several bookmakers have dipped their toes into the water with markets on over who will be the first permanent President of the European Council but so far not many punters have been tempted. What’s the point of locking up your stake in bets on something that might not come about? For whether there’ll be such a role has always been dependent on the Lisbon treaty being ratified by all the EU…

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