What does this say about the “Cameron on the telly” thesis?
CON 44% (+4) LAB 27% (-4) LD 17%(-1)
The tracker sees Labour’s deficit increase by 8 points
Long-standing regulars will know that for years I’ve argued that that there is a close correlation between the amount of coverage that Cameron gets on TV and his party’s poll ratings.
So after the “saturation-Cameron” coverage around his big speech ahead of the field-work for the latest YouGov tracker what happens? Of course. The Tories see their share moving to 44% all at the expense of Labour who fall back four notches to 27%.
I wish I had been able to put money on it.
Whatever today’s numbers may or not say about the actual outcome the shifts do provide a possible indicator of the dynamic in the formal election campaign when the three main parties are guaranteed a high level of coverage every day
This was the reason why I’ve always felt that Brown would have been denied a fourth term if he had had the courage to call the election at the start of October 2007. In his first three months of office he had hardly been off the TV blanking out the Tories and the Lib Dems. Once that changed the polls changed.