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Month: August 2009

Was the 2007 non-election because he needed to outshine Blair?

Was the 2007 non-election because he needed to outshine Blair?

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Did the shadow of Tony determine the historic decision? We are not far away from the second anniversary of what’s likely to go down as the defining decision of the Gordon Brown era – his cancelling in October 2007 of an early election. This is something that will be examined again and again in future years and still dominates our politics. For the polls during the Brown honeymoon had all been going Labour’s way and Brown apparently had a chance…

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What’ll Labour’s share be when the votes are counted?

What’ll Labour’s share be when the votes are counted?

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PaddyPower Is their value on this new market? Overnight, while doing the piece on Irish referendum, I checked the political markets of PaddyPower which I must admit I tend to overlook. This is a pity because they are building a good range of UK general election bets including the above one which I have not seen elsewhere. With the big trend at the moment being the erosion of Labour votes a market on the percentage vote share that they’ll end…

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Are constituency primaries the pattern for the future?

Are constituency primaries the pattern for the future?

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BBC online Is this a way of reconnecting with the voters? The result of the Conservative Totnes primary was announced this lunchtime and the big number that will be looked at is the 24.6% turnout. This puts it on par with what we saw last year in the US presidential primaries and gives the winner a very different mandate from those selected as parliamentary by standard selection procedures. Here it’s almost always in the hands of local parties with, in…

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Could an Irish “YES” revive the Tory EU nightmare?

Could an Irish “YES” revive the Tory EU nightmare?

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Is tolerating Lisbon the price for power? On Friday October 2nd, just before the Conservatives gather for their last conference before the general election, the Irish vote in their second referendum on the Lisbon EU treaty having rejected it first time round. A NO vote would be brilliant for the Tories because Lisbon would then be rejected with the UK having “clean hands”. But if the betting markets have got this right then the outcome will be a YES and,…

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Political betting – a Rumsfeldian perspective

Political betting – a Rumsfeldian perspective

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AntiFrank speculates on “the unknown unknowns”? Chess is a trivial game. I do not make this statement to annoy chess players: it is a mathematical statement. All information is available to both players throughout, the rules are predetermined and in theory at least all possible outcomes are known. Unlike chess, bridge is a non-trivial game. The different players have different information at different times. Each player must make his decisions not on the basis of perfect information but on the…

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Was Cameron wrong with his Tesco comparison?

Was Cameron wrong with his Tesco comparison?

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Is this like Thatcher’s “.. no such thing as society” comment? There’s been a flurry of comment over David Cameron’s comment in his BBC “Westminster Hour” interview in which he suggested that the Tories would run the country like Tesco and Sainsbury’s if they get to power. The exact quote was according to the Sun: “In the situation we will face if we win the election, a budget deficit of maybe 14 per cent, we must find ways to cut…

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Could Labour hold on by re-kindling the Glenrothes “magic”?

Could Labour hold on by re-kindling the Glenrothes “magic”?

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Why was that result so out of line? Just look at the table above showing the change in the actual number of votes cast for Labour in by elections in the current parliament. The list only features those constituencies that the party was defending and the change is compared with the general election. As is generally accepted parties in government do badly in such contests and Labour has lost half of them. But what happened at Glenrothes last November? It…

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The Brazilian futures market

The Brazilian futures market

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Wikimedia Commons Dan Hamilton takes an early look at Brazil 2010 On Sunday 10th October 2010, Brazilians will go to the polls to pick the country’s fourth directly-elected President since the resumption of civilian rule in 1985. The 2010 elections will mark the first Presidential election since 1989 in which incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former shoe-shiner and sheet metal worker, will not be a candidate. Choosing not to emulate the example of Colombia’s Alvaro Uribe or…

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