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Month: July 2009

Will this be the death-knell for the Greens’ Westminster hopes?

Will this be the death-knell for the Greens’ Westminster hopes?

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If they can’t do well in Norwich – then where? To understand the importance of next week’s Norwich North by election to the Green Party you only need look at the following which appeared in the letters section of the Guardian earlier in the week. “The byelection in Norwich North next week could be a watershed moment in British politics…. For the first time ever, a byelection is being held in an area of Green party strength. The Greens are…

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Could 2010 see two general elections?

Could 2010 see two general elections?

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What if the first one isn’t decisive? The general assumption about the result of the next election is that the Conservatives will win it. The opinion polls point to a Tory win, as do the bookies, where the Conservatives are heavily odds-on. That said, favourites are not certainties and a hung parliament remains no longer than 3/1 (with Paddy Power). If that is the result – and it will be if Labour lose more than about a couple of dozen…

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Could you be vulnerable to phone tapping?

Could you be vulnerable to phone tapping?

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PB Mobile How many PBers use default voice-mail settings? The thing I find amazing about the whole telephone-tapping saga, back in the news today with the commons committee hearing, is that it’s so low-tech and so easy for anybody to do. Everything is based on the fact the most mobile users don’t bother to set their own voice-mail pass-word when they get a new phone which means that the default settings – hardly complex combinations like 1, 2, 3, 4…

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What motive behind this mischief?

What motive behind this mischief?

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Mirror.co.uk Is Harriet Harman back on manouevres? My initial response was that it must be an April Fool delivered late by her Press Office, but in the light of a new day it appears that tackling ‘anti-Northern discrimination’ was a genuine policy announcement from the Press Office of Harriet Harman MP QC. Harman has, of course, long been the self-appointed poster child of the equality movement – promoting the equalisation of women, ethnic minorities and LGBTs in British society. I…

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Does the polling “form book” provide any hope for Labour?

Does the polling “form book” provide any hope for Labour?

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ICM Guardian – July 6 1996 CON 30 LAB 45 LD 21 General Election Result May 1 1997 CON 31.4 LAB 44.4 LD 17.2 ICM Guardian – July 15 2000 CON 35 LAB 42 LD 17 General Election result June 7 2001 CON 32.7 LAB 42 LD 18.8 ICM Guardian – July 18 2004 CON 30 LAB 35 LD 25 General Election result May 5 2005 CON 33.2 LAB 36.2 LD 22.6 Comparing the July pre-election polls with what happened?…

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Is Gordon running out of time?

Is Gordon running out of time?

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Do ICM’s figures start to look like an election result? With just over eight months to go before the general election campaign is due to start the latest survey from ICM for the Guardian underlines the challenge facing Mr. Brown and his party. For while there was a sharpish move away from “others” – which was always going to happen as we got further on from the EU elections – Labour finds itself on a standstill with the Tories and…

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And the July ICM numbers are…

And the July ICM numbers are…

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CON 41 (+2) LAB 27 (nc) LD 20 (+2) Con lead by 14 – highest Tory ICM share since March The Guardian ICM poll is now out and shows the Conservatives extending their lead over Labour by two points to 14 and above the important 40% barrier. The Conservatives have not scored this well in an ICM poll since March (before the expenses revelations broke) while Labour remain marooned on their second-worst ICM number since last June. Meanwhile the Lib…

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Could we be about to see the first poll of July?

Could we be about to see the first poll of July?

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CON ?? (?) LAB ?? (?) LD ??(?) What will the Guardian put the emphasis on? I’ve just had it on good authority that fieldwork for the first poll of July (the last was completed on June 28th) was carried out by ICM from Friday until Sunday and if the Guardian are following their normal practice then we should get the figures this evening. This is great news for all poll-watchers because it’s been so long since we last had…

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