Do voters like the man but not the Tories? There’s an interesting article by Andrew Grice in the Independent who has had, as he says, “a peek” at some of Labour’s private polling. He writes: “..Labour asked small groups of voters how people would feel if they woke up to find there was a Tory government. “No different” and “no change” were frequent answers. So the Tories’ “now for change” slogan hasn’t worked yet. How would people feel if Labour…
Or are the markets overreacting again? Two disclaimers to begin with: firstly, as I’ve already admitted, the Conservative candidate in Norwich is a friend of mine. Irrespective of party, I think she’d make a great MP, and I hope she wins, but unfortunately, that means I cannot write without bias about the Norwich North by-election, so I won’t particularly try. Secondly, my betting record in UK by-elections is rubbish. Awful. Embarassingly bad. I make a very healthy profit on US…
BBC News August 2006 Has an MP ever insulted his constituents so much? After a week’s by election campaigning when “which candidate is the most local” seems to have been the dominant issue I’m reminded of my favourite moment during the career of the outgoing MP, Ian Gibson. For the curtain should not be allowed to close on his political career without reference to what to my mind is one of the best political insults ever – the day that…
HenryG asks: “Could Swine Flu Save the PM?” The rapidly increasing numbers of people infected with swine flu will have a huge impact on the UK in the next year. Forecasts of up to 66,000 swine flu deaths this Christmas will have a devastating impact on communities, public services and also the economy. The UK Government is recognised to have some of the best preparations in the world and the most plentiful arrangements for tamiflu. By no means am I…
A year on from his “bid” how much credibility does he have left? There isn’t a political version of the Hollywood Stock Exchange (perhaps there ought to be), but if there were, the share price of David Miliband, probably rated a “sell” since last autumn’s Conference, would have been in free-fall after the recent Cabinet reshuffle. For those hoping to see the termination of Brown’s premiership, it had been an exciting few days, with the rolling resignations of Smith and…
Why have one in six Labour voters switched to Cameron? The data from the latest ICM poll shows that of those who said they voted Labour at the last general election a total of 18% of them now say that they will be voting Tory. On top of that 11% say they’ll switch to the Lib Dems although the net switch to Clegg’s party is partially offset by some 2005 LD voters going the other way. The conventional way of…
Once lost, could it be reclaimed? Looking at the betting markets, there are clearly plenty of punters who think the Conservatives are almost certain to see Chloe Smith elected on the 23rd July. With the hulabaloo of the national media, by-elections are crucial shapers of the political narrative, but I wonder if their usefulness outlasts the by-election itself. Labour seem doomed to lose the seat that was vacated by ‘Dr Ian Gibson’ after the party foolishly prohibited him from standing…
Is a Conservative victory almost an absolute certainty? With interest rates on savings now at about 0.5% after tax I’ve suggested before that having a political bet on what seems like a certainty might be a good way of getting a return on your money. The government, in their wisdom, have switched the balance between savings and borrowers to such a point that there is no point in doing things like saving up for your retirement. Is it any wonder…